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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7709)	8/25/2001 7:39:17 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Maybe I can begin to catch up: Message 16259496 :) David

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7709)	8/26/2001 5:16:58 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Airtravel will Collapse. Magnitude 7 on our scale. The Cold War and throw into the open a lot of technologies previously pushed to the military establishment, a.k.a Defence. It is not only the technologies that were thrown in the civilian use: The scientists and engineers (63% of the scientists and engineers were working in defence related activities during the Cold War) were also let loose. If you have a captive market for your transceiver, now you had to re-package it as a VSAT and try sell in Argentina or any other bush. Cushy jobs and 'price is no objection' technologies faced a daunting future. Voila! the Internet abracadabra cum tech boom came to being. But now the tech boom has fizzled. Now the tectonic plates have to release some force. We will have an earthquake. The echoes of the Cold War started to come down: first sat business. (Expect satellite TV to go down the drain too and perhaps soon. Magnitude still to be classified) Next we have airtravel collapsing: Boeing is suffering. Posted its first full-year loss in 1997 after 50 years of profits. Its customers are hemorraging money. The US has a de-regulated airtravel but International travel is still regulated by a government sanctioned cartel the IATA. Most probably international airtravel is subsidizing domestic travel in the same way long distance subsidize local calls. Airtravel is poised to collapse because it is showing the marks of a dead man walking. When you read something like this: "Boeing is now branching into such areas as satellites, air traffic control management, aftermarket servicing and maintenance, and broader financial services. A couple of LEDs should lit in your brain. And then, Moved HQ to Chicago to change corporate culture. Hey, this is the automakers in the early eighties when the Japanese and Arabs were teaching them how to make automobiles (post oil shock)! Acquired Hughes' satellite business for $3.85 billion, Connexion by Boeing, for example, is a drive to install high-speed Internet service on commercial planes. Coming late to the Internet boom? Well, things move real slow in the aircraft business. The future of air transport is Eva Air. (My work horse from Jakarta to San Francisco via Taipei.) Back of the plane carry electronics, front of the plane carry passenger in four classes. Lots of them going to Vegas for gambling. I don't know if after the Asian crisis the Vegas traffic diminished or will continue.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7709)	8/26/2001 1:39:40 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

There aren't rich countries and poor countries. What we have is: inflated countries and deflated countries. So inflated countries import from deflated countries and vice versa. You need to have lived in First World, Second World, Third World and Fourth World (like I did) to get the idea) To make my point clear. If the economy of the rich country Inflaland and the economy of Deflaland were both based in the production of Marlboro. (OK is an over simplification but The Economist uses Big Mac as an index and no one is saying anything)And both had 100.000 inhabitants. Both produced 1 million packs of cigarettes very year. A pack of cigarettes in Inflaland costs USD2.5. In Deflaland cost 85c. The GDP of Inflaland would USD2.5 million and Deflaland 850.000. GDP per capita of USD25 income per capita in Inflaland and USD 8.5 for Deflaland. Hence one is rich other is poor. Of course the economy revolves about planting tobacco, manufacturing cigarettes. Advertising and selling them. No difference here between Infla and Defla. But how comes they turn around more money in Inflaland? Inflation. But why people in Deflaland live in shanty towns, have poor health, poor education and the system is brutal? Compare that with Inflaland afluency. That has nothing to do with the economic activity. Poverty is a state of mind! Lousy economics policy. See Argentinians who are poor by option. Why this is important for us? The world has to face deflation. (Magnitude 8 in the Jel Scale) Prices have not reflected the drop in production costs. Hot air continuously kept being pumped into Inflaland to keep it 'rich'. Subsidies of all kinds is pushed in. Bubbles every ten years or so. Computer businesses have always transferred the lower prices to customers. We are not paying USD100 for a PC today because the value has always being kept steadily due to peripherals that come bundled with the PC: CDs, DVD, modems, sound cards, more memory etc. Compare that with the telcoms industry: All over the world, gas, electricity, water and sewage utilities have invaded the telecoms market due the fact that telcoms have successfully kept inflated prices and do not transfer to customer the lower prices. Today they prefer to kill the competitors rather than see prices dropping. (Hey I am not complaining I implement those things, you know!) Life in Deflaland:* "The European Commission has reported that the standard of living in Prague, the Czech Republic's capital city, is nearly 20 percent higher than the EU average." * Source: U.S. & FOREIGN COMMERCIAL SERVICE AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2000. I invited a couple friend of mine for lunch: 4 adults and a child. Bill: 1100 Kc. USD28 total bill. I love those 350G Prime rib steak (bloody). Horned Aberdeen Angus raise eating grass in Moravia. Do like Elmat: Live in a "poor" country. A reasonable barbecue restaurant in Brazil charges USD2.5 for meal, coffee included. In the US café latte USD3.95. Deflation will come towards you, ladies and Gentlemen!