Warner Has Wide Lead, Poll Shows
Voter Anger at Gilmore, Quick Ad Start Credited
• Va. 2001 Elections
• The Race for Governor
By R.H. Melton and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, August 26, 2001; Page A01
Mark R. Warner, the Democratic candidate for Virginia governor, holds a sizable lead over Republican rival Mark L. Earley across a spectrum of voters in every region of the state, according to a new Washington Post poll.
With 10 weeks to go before the Nov. 6 election, Warner leads Earley 51 percent to 37 percent among registered voters and by 11 percentage points among those most likely to vote. The Democrat enjoys wide margins of support among men and women, in every age group, among Northern Virginians and small-town voters, and among blacks, the poll found.
Yet the race is far from over. Distracted by summer vacations and now by back-to-school activities, those who were polled said they have only vague impressions of both Warner and Earley, meaning the Republican could narrow the gap once the candidates and issues are more clearly defined.
Warner, 46, an Alexandria entrepreneur who has never held elective office, has been trying to get the jump on Earley with an August television-and-mail blitz, at a cost of more than $1.2 million. Earley, 47, whose career in Virginia government includes a decade as a state senator and four years as attorney general, plans to hold his money in reserve and wait until mid-September before launching his TV counterattack.
Meanwhile, the Democrat appears to be benefiting from some voter dissatisfaction with the administration of Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R), whose unyielding support for car-tax relief contributed to a legislative impasse on the budget this year that blocked raises for teachers and other public employees as well as new funding for cultural institutions and college construction projects.
Nearly three in 10 Virginians who voted for Gilmore in 1997, when he won handily on a promise to cut the car tax, said they planned to vote for Warner this year.
"At the time, the reduction of the car tax was enticing. It's less enticing now," said Jennifer Powers, 34, of Arlington, a Gilmore-turned-Warner voter and mother of 18-month-old twin boys. "I'm much more concerned about services."
The poll showed little receptivity to Republican attacks on Warner's personal wealth, a $200 million technology fortune he tapped in 1996 for a $10 million U.S. Senate race. If anything, the poll showed that Virginians believe the Democrat would be a more adept manager of the sluggish state economy than Earley. On education, a big issue in the race, Warner is the favorite among voters who want state government to do more for public schools.
Warner "presents himself very well when he's speaking on television about education," said Marylyn Mathews, 64, of Arlington, a preschool teacher who voted for Gilmore and likes his commitment to repealing the car tax. "He's the first one in his family that went after an education, and that's important."
The poll, based on interviews with 1,312 self-described registered voters, including 695 likely voters, suggested that Warner made inroads in Republican-leaning Virginia by launching his campaign in March 2000, 15 months before Earley won the GOP nomination. The poll's margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based only on likely voters.
A former state Democratic Party chairman, Warner has downplayed his partisan roots in a TV advertising campaign that began in the spring with a $2 million round of introductory ads and accelerated this month.
"His name has been popping up more," said Donna Ritchie, 45, a Gilmore voter from rural Rockingham County who plans to vote for Warner. Ritchie said that her husband, a deputy sheriff, lost an expected pay raise in the budget impasse. "He wasn't too happy with Gilmore -- and I wasn't either," she said.
Earley is supported by the state's most reliably Republican constituencies, including abortion opponents, white Protestants, white men, married voters with children and self-described members of the religious right. In each of those groups, the Republican candidate leads Warner by 3 to 7 percentage points.
"I just feel Mark Earley's values are closer to mine," said Clay Brinson, 46, a veterinarian in Abingdon in Southwest Virginia. "Our culture has drifted from knowing the difference between right and wrong. Our educational system needs to be very accountable. And I know Earley's experience level is greater than his opponent." Half of those questioned said they were more likely to vote for a gubernatorial candidate if that person had elective experience.
At the same time, Warner has developed support in some traditional GOP voter blocs. For instance, two in 10 moderate Republicans said they support the Democrat, as did four in 10 abortion opponents. Even in wealthier households -- those with an income of more than $75,000 a year -- Warner has a slight lead, 48 percent to 45 percent. Meanwhile, independent voters lean heavily to Warner at this point, 55 percent, to 29 percent for Earley.
Campaign managers for Earley and Warner said the poll's results generally match their internal polling. Private polls on both sides have shown Earley trailing by at least 9 percentage points, but both campaigns said they expect the contest to tighten considerably.
"Earley and the GOP have always looked better in the fall than in August," said Earley spokesman David B. Botkins. "Warner should be 30 points ahead, given his millions invested in TV ads."
Warner campaign manager Steve Jarding said: "We're very encouraged that people are responding to Mark Warner's message. We know that this is still going to be difficult, but we think people want new leadership."
The race has already received widespread national attention, in part because it is the only gubernatorial contest besides New Jersey this year, but mostly for what it might reveal about the power of GOP themes a year into the Bush administration. The election will also be an important test for Virginia Republicans, who in less than a decade have made remarkable electoral strides against the state's once-dominant Democrats.
In that sense, Warner's aggressive campaign and personal wealth pose a special political threat to Gilmore, who as Bush's handpicked chairman of the Republican National Committee will send millions of dollars Earley's way to help his quest to be Virginia's third consecutive GOP governor.
But the poll suggests that after eight years of GOP leadership, there may be some sentiment for change, sparked at least in part by the budget impasse that a substantial number of voters blame on Gilmore.
For instance, across the state, voters from both the Democratic and Republican parties now rank the full elimination of the car tax at the bottom of a list of seven priorities for the next governor, well below such leading items as the economy and education.
Also, equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats said they were annoyed by state government's budget gridlock; half of the Democrats and four in 10 independents blame Gilmore for the impasse, as do one in four Republicans. Earley has pledged to finish the car-tax repeal next year; Warner has said he wants to do it by 2006.
Gilmore's job-approval rating among Virginia's voters stands at 57 percent, down from 70 percent this time last year.
"I didn't think the car-tax thing would work -- and when you take money away from something to pay for it, I don't think that's good," said Dorothy "Dot" Nicely, 69, from Clifton Forge, near West Virginia, who voted for Gilmore and supports Warner.
Nancy Jarvie, 66, of Springfield, another independent for Warner, said: "I don't like our present governor at all, and Earley is trying to follow his policies. The car tax is a terrible tax, but roads have to be built. I've gotten really disgusted. Everything's taken a hit -- schools, our roads. Mark Warner isn't Mark Earley: I guess that sums up my vote."
But Raquel Burke, 59, a retired federal employee and Arlington Democrat who voted for Gilmore and supports Earley, said the state owes it to taxpayers to finish the car-tax repeal. "I don't want the personal-property taxes to come back -- I hate dishing that money out!" she said.
Burke said she wants the next governor to "pay more attention to roads in this area," adding that she is willing to pay more in sales tax for improvements -- a view held by nearly six in 10 of the poll's Northern Virginia respondents.
Those Washington suburbanites, who account for about 25 percent of Virginia's electorate, are likely, once again, to play a pivotal role in the governor's race. Warner leads Earley by 17 percentage points in the region as a whole, but that margin jumps to 33 points in the heavily Democratic precincts inside the Capital Beltway.
Six in 10 voters in the inner suburbs say they know at least a fair amount about Warner, compared to 38 percent who say the same for Earley. The Republican candidate is better known in his home base of Hampton Roads, but even there, half of the voters say they know little or nothing about him.
Statewide, nearly six in 10 voters said they do not know enough about the candidates to distinguish them on the issues.
Roland Esparza, 61, an Arlington Republican who voted for Gilmore, said he wants to see much more of Earley in Northern Virginia. "The little that I've seen of Warner has not excited me," he said. "I haven't seen much of Earley, either, but it's a matter of Warner not doing anything, as opposed to Earley being able to do something."
Although Republicans have raised concerns about Warner's ability to lavish his own money on the race, six in 10 voters questioned said that self-financing a campaign makes no difference to them.
"That doesn't impress me at all," said Marylyn Mathews. "If they want to blow their money that way, be my guest."
Polling Director Richard Morin contributed to this report.
© 2001 The Washington Post Company |
