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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTSherman who wrote (10024)	8/26/2001 1:22:45 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

WTS, I repeat, the gloom being spouted, is no different than at the bottom of any prior cycle. Journalists seem unable to believe that unknown and unpredicted innovations could ever recur; or that they could spur another major growth spurt. It has always been so in this sector. And this time it isn't any different. Ian

To: WTSherman who wrote (10024)	8/26/2001 1:28:38 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: "What is going to drive semi usage over the next 5 years?" The ability to make inexpensive, unobtrusive, yet valuable intelligence pervasive in our daily lives. Self monitoring devices with decision making and communications capabilities will be the norm. "Smart" will become commonplace and the term will cease to be used. Everything will be "networked." Voice will coexist with keyboards and keypads and each will be used in appropriate contexts. Text messages will be presented as voice or text, and text will be edited by voice or keys. Voice to text conversions will occur for storage and editing and then the result converted back to voice for presentation. Voices will be analyzed and reproduced in the delivery of text messages. You will no longer be able to distinguish live and recorded from computer generated. There has never been an economic driver like the semi. It becomes smaller, more powerful, less expensive, and less of an energy consumer over time, and does this at rapid rates for all four. At a continuum of threshholds, new applications will become viable and will slip from R & D into our every day world. Semi content in dollars as a percent of electronics dollars is only one measure. Semis pervade areas that have traditionally not been electronic and make them so. This process will accelerate.

To: WTSherman who wrote (10024)	8/26/2001 1:28:50 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10921

I am in agreement with you, which is why I am using NT as my leading indicator; whenever Nortel shows two sequential quarters of flat revenue, IMO a fundamental rebound is in the works. I also believe that this time around the chips will do much better than the equipments. To begin with, most fab utilizations are between 30%-70%. This means that there needs to be at least a 50% increase in chip production before there is real need to order equipment. Secondly, as a whole,IMO, chips seem better value than equipement. And finally, this business down turn has to have reduced the cost base of chip makers more than the equipements. However, as we all know, there is difference between fundamental rebound and stock rebound. I suspect that the flat part of this "U" recovery will have ups and downs that the market will mistake for inflection point. When that happens, I will try to ride it up but be ready to go short (or at least sell in the money calls). BTW, I've been terribly busy and been in and out of the country for a while, which is why I've been so quiet. Still, this past quarter has been one of the most profitable ones ever. Aside from the quick 30k trade on EXDS, shorts of VRTS, BRCM, and MANU have paid quite well. I covered VRTS (sadly too soon at high 30s but not too bad for a 20+ gain). But I am still short MANU and BRCM (I may have missed the bottom on that). The only shorts that have been stubborn are XLNX and AOL. On the long side, DSPG, NSM, and to a lesser degree PRIA have done well...and I almost forgot, I recently opened a far in the money puts on 4000 shares of KKD which have been doing well and I expect will do very well going forward. Best of luck to all. Sun Tzu