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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (635)	8/26/2001 10:55:44 AM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

Comparison chart of HUI to the S&P quote.yahoo.com Month of August showing HUI becoming a lot more counter cyclical to the S&P than previously. IF that pattern were to continue, it could provide some interesting action for us were the broad market indices to sell off in the 4th quarter. Isopatch

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (635)	8/26/2001 2:32:35 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

Excerp from Paul Kasriel's 8/22 economic commentary "Everyone is worried about Argentina's ability to service its external debt. But despite the fact that Argentina has a smaller current account deficit relative to GDP than does the US, there has little concern expressed about the US' ability to service its external debt. Why not? Well, of course, the Argentine economy is in much worse shape than that of the US. But there is another factor to consider. Both Argentina and the US have most of their external debt denominated in US dollars. But whereas Argentina can't create dollars, figuratively out of thin air, to service its external debt, the US can. So the US has an option in lieu of default that Argentina does not - inflate. The US has the largest amount of external debt of any country in the world. When the going gets tough, debtors seek relief through inflation. Higher inflation eases the real debt servicing burden. The going is getting tough for us now and we are a nation of debtors. There is likely to be increasing political pressure on Greenspan to inflate. Could it be that the drift down in the dollar and the drift up in gold prices since early July is reflecting the market's growing expectations that the Fed is going to do its best to ease its constituents' real debt burdens?" With his trademark continuity of theme into the commentary of 8/23 "Prior to becoming president of the St. Louis Fed, William Poole was a card-carrying monetarist as evidenced by his membership on the SOMC, the Shadow Open Market Committee. Since coming out of the Shadow and becoming a member of the FOMC, Poole's monetarist symptoms had been relatively mild. That is until June 27, when he dissented in very monetarist terms from the majority FOMC decision to cut the funds rate by 25 b.p. to 3.75%. Poole characterized current monetary policy as "highly stimulative" as evidenced by annualized growth in M2 and MZM over the prior six months of 10% and 20%, respectively" HELLO out there investors! 10% and 20% during the past 6 months in those aggregates is a good old fashioned "Bananna Republic" money growth! TIC! TOC! "Isopatch the steadfast"<G>. Lot's of gold shares AND lots of cash! Who says the big boys don't engineer a run of the sell stops to shake out weak, leveraged gold longs and pick up those shares for chump change?! Gold is the most easily manipulated market there is. I've been repeating for months. ALWAYS keep plenty of cash reserves, just in case. Isopatch