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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (51158)	8/26/2001 11:16:15 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, DW bull percentages. Note, it appears that the NYSE is going lower. Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 7/17/01 7/24/01 7/31/01 8/07/01 8/14/01 8/21/01 10week 46 10week 40 10week 48 10week 50 10week 52 bpeuro 30nyse 56 30nyse 52 30nyse 56 30nyse 55 30nyse 52 bpsavi 86 30otc 50 30otc 50 30otc 48 30otc 45 30otc 44 bpbank 84 bpaero 50 bpaero 56 bpaero 56 bpaero 54 bpaero 56 HLnyse 82 bpauto 60 bpauto 60 bpauto 60 bpauto 60 bpauto 60 bpreal 80 bpbank 80 bpbank 82 bpbank 82 bpbank 85 bpbank 84 bprest 70 bpbiom 40 bpbiom 36 bpbiom 39 bpbiom 37 bpbiom 32 bpprot 66 bpbuil 76 bpbuil 78 bpbuil 76 bpbuil 66 bpbuil 66 bpprec 66 bpbusi 56 bpbusi 56 bpbusi 52 bpbusi 54 bpbusi 56 bpbuil 66 bpchem 44 bpchem 44 bpchem 44 bpchem 44 bpchem 44 bptran 64 BPCOMP 36 BPCOMP 36 BPCOMP 34 BPCOMP 34 BPCOMP 30 bpfore 64 bpdrug 60 bpdrug 56 bpdrug 58 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 48 bpfood 62 bpelec 38 bpelec 38 bpelec 38 bpelec 40 bpelec 40 bpinsu 60 bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro 30nyse 58 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 52 bpeuti 52 bpeuti 51 bpeuti 52 bpfina 56 bpfina 64 bpfina 64 bpfina 60 bpfina 58 bpfina 56 bpbusi 56 bpfood 68 bpfood 68 bpfood 62 bpfood 62 bpfood 62 bpaero 56 bpfore 64 bpfore 64 bpfore 67 bpfore 65 bpfore 64 bpleis 54 bpgame 50 bpgame 46 bpgame 46 bpgame 44 bpgame 42 bphous 54 bpguti 52 bpguti 46 bpguti 46 bpguti 46 bpguti 46 10week 54 bpheal 62 bpheal 56 bpheal 54 bpheal 49 bpheal 48 bpnyse 52 bphous 58 bphous 56 bphous 56 bphous 56 bphous 54 bpmeta 52 bpinet 22 bpinet 22 bpinet 20 bpinet 18 bpinet 18 bpguti 52 bpinsu 74 bpinsu 64 bpinsu 60 bpinsu 60 bpinsu 60 bpgame 52 bplati 32 bplati 28 bplati 28 bplati 33 bplati 28 bpeuti 52 bpleis 62 bpleis 62 bpleis 60 bpleis 59 bpleis 56 bpwast 50 bpmach 44 bpmach 44 bpmach 45 bpmach 50 bpmach 50 bpreta 50 bpmedi 46 bpmedi 46 bpmedi 43 bpmedi 42 bpmedi 38 bpmach 50 bpmeta 58 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 52 bpauto 50 bpnyse 54 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 52 HLotc 48 bpoil 30 bpoil 30 bpoil 35 bpoil 35 bpoil 40 bpheal 48 bpoils 34 bpoils 34 bpoils 38 bpoils 33 bpoils 34 bpdrug 46 bpopti 48 bpopti 48 bpopti 49 bpopti 48 bpopti 46 bpwall 44 bpotc 46 bpotc 46 bpotc 46 bpotc 45 bpotc 44 bpopti 44 bpprec 74 bpprec 74 bpprec 69 bpprec 69 bpprec 66 bpchem 44 bpprot 76 bpprot 76 bpprot 70 bpprot 74 bpprot 68 bptext 40 bpreal 76 bpreal 76 bpreal 77 bpreal 77 bpreal 80 bpotc 40 bprest 58 bprest 58 bprest 58 bprest 64 bprest 64 bpoil 40 bpreta 54 bpreta 54 bpreta 54 bpreta 51 bpreta 50 30otc 40 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 84 bpsavi 84 twotc 36 BPSEMI 30 BPSEMI 38 BPSEMI 49 BPSEMI 62 BPSEMI 54 bpmedi 36 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 36 bpsoft 36 bpsoft 35 bpsoft 32 bpstee 34 bpstee 42 bpstee 34 bpstee 34 bpstee 35 bpstee 34 BPSEMI 34 BPTELE 28 BPTELE 28 BPTELE 33 BPTELE 34 BPTELE 34 bpoils 34 bptext 46 bptext 46 bptext 47 bptext 46 bptext 44 bpelec 34 bptran 62 bptran 60 bptran 58 bptran 60 bptran 62 bpbiom 32 bpwall 44 bpwall 44 bpwall 46 bpwall 51 bpwall 50 bpsoft 30 bpwast 56 bpwast 56 bpwast 54 bpwast 53 bpwast 52 bplati 28 HLnyse 66 HLnyse 65 HLnyse 68 HLnyse 76 HLnyse 82 BPCOMP 26 HLotc 50 HLotc 50 HLotc 52 HLotc 54 HLotc 58 BPTELE 24 twotc 40 twotc 40 twotc 39 twotc 40 twotc 38 bpinet 16 Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 7/17/01 7/24/01 7/31/01 8/7/01 8/14/01 8/21/01 bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpbank 85 bpsavi 84 bpsavi 86 bpbank 80 bpbank 82 bpbank 82 bpsavi 84 bpbank 84 bpbank 84 bpreal 76 bpbuil 78 bpreal 77 bpreal 77 HLnyse 82 HLnyse 82 bpprot 76 bpreal 76 bpbuil 76 HLnyse 76 bpreal 80 bpreal 80 bpbuil 76 bpprot 76 bpprot 70 bpprot 74 bpprot 68 bprest 70 bpprec 74 bpprec 74 bpprec 69 bpprec 69 bpprec 66 bpprot 66 bpinsu 74 bpfood 68 HLnyse 68 bpbuil 66 bpbuil 66 bpprec 66 bpfood 68 HLnyse 65 bpfore 67 bpfore 65 bprest 64 bpbuil 66 HLnyse 66 bpinsu 64 bpfood 62 bprest 64 bpfore 64 bptran 64 bpfore 64 bpfore 64 bpleis 60 BPSEMI 62 bptran 62 bpfore 64 bpfina 64 bpfina 64 bpinsu 60 bpfood 62 bpfood 62 bpfood 62 bptran 62 bpleis 62 bpfina 60 bptran 60 bpinsu 60 bpinsu 60 bpleis 62 bptran 60 bpauto 60 bpinsu 60 bpauto 60 30nyse 58 bpheal 62 bpauto 60 bptran 58 bpauto 60 HLotc 58 bpfina 56 bpeuti 62 bprest 58 bprest 58 bpleis 59 bpleis 56 bpbusi 56 bpdrug 60 bpwast 56 bpdrug 58 bpfina 58 bpfina 56 bpaero 56 bpauto 60 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 56 bpmeta 56 bpbusi 56 bpleis 54 bprest 58 bphous 56 bphous 56 bphous 56 bpaero 56 bphous 54 bpmeta 58 bpheal 56 bpaero 56 30nyse 55 BPSEMI 54 10week 54 bphous 58 bpdrug 56 30nyse 56 HLotc 54 bphous 54 bpnyse 52 bpwast 56 bpbusi 56 bpwast 54 bpdrug 54 bpwast 52 bpmeta 52 bpbusi 56 bpaero 56 bpreta 54 bpbusi 54 bpnyse 52 bpguti 52 30nyse 56 bpreta 54 bpheal 54 bpaero 54 bpmeta 52 bpgame 52 bpreta 54 bpnyse 52 HLotc 52 bpwast 53 bpeuti 52 bpeuti 52 bpnyse 54 bpeuti 52 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 52 30nyse 52 bpwast 50 bpguti 52 30nyse 52 bpeuti 52 bpwall 51 10week 52 bpreta 50 HLotc 50 HLotc 50 bpbusi 52 bpreta 51 bpwall 50 bpmach 50 bpgame 50 30otc 50 BPSEMI 49 bpeuti 51 bpreta 50 bpauto 50 bpaero 50 bpopti 48 bpopti 49 bpmach 50 bpmach 50 HLotc 48 30otc 50 bptext 46 30otc 48 10week 50 bpheal 48 bpheal 48 bpopti 48 bpotc 46 10week 48 bpheal 49 bpdrug 48 bpdrug 46 bptext 46 bpmedi 46 bptext 47 bpopti 48 bpopti 46 bpwall 44 bpotc 46 bpguti 46 bpwall 46 bptext 46 bpguti 46 bpopti 44 bpmedi 46 bpgame 46 bpotc 46 bpguti 46 bptext 44 bpchem 44 10week 46 bpwall 44 bpguti 46 bpotc 45 bpotc 44 bptext 40 bpwall 44 bpmach 44 bpgame 46 30otc 45 bpchem 44 bpotc 40 bpmach 44 bpchem 44 bpmach 45 bpgame 44 30otc 44 bpoil 40 bpchem 44 twotc 40 bpchem 44 bpchem 44 bpgame 42 30otc 40 bpstee 42 10week 40 bpmedi 43 bpmedi 42 bpoil 40 twotc 36 twotc 40 BPSEMI 38 twotc 39 twotc 40 bpelec 40 bpmedi 36 bpbiom 40 bpelec 38 bpbiom 39 bpelec 40 twotc 38 bpstee 34 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 36 bpoils 38 bpbiom 37 bpmedi 38 BPSEMI 34 bpelec 38 BPCOMP 36 bpelec 38 bpstee 35 BPTELE 34 bpoils 34 BPCOMP 36 bpbiom 36 bpsoft 36 bpsoft 35 bpstee 34 bpelec 34 bpoils 34 bpstee 34 bpoil 35 bpoil 35 bpoils 34 bpbiom 32 bplati 32 bpoils 34 bpstee 34 BPTELE 34 bpsoft 32 bpsoft 30 BPSEMI 30 bpoil 30 BPCOMP 34 BPCOMP 34 bpbiom 32 bplati 28 bpoil 30 BPTELE 28 BPTELE 33 bpoils 33 BPCOMP 30 BPCOMP 26 BPTELE 28 bplati 28 bplati 28 bplati 33 bplati 28 BPTELE 24 bpinet 22 bpinet 22 bpinet 20 bpinet 18 bpinet 18 bpinet 16

To: Gottfried who wrote (51158)	8/27/2001 12:24:53 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks for the post Gottfried...which brings to mind a nagging questions. What are the best contrary indicators out there? 1) Put call ration? 2) No good news on the horizon? 3) No further bad or deteriorating news about a company? 4) Agreement by the talking heads on CNNFN that there is no catalyst to move the market upward? 5) Lack of call premium on the semi-equipment stocks? 6)A deteriorating stock market in the face of seven Fed rate cuts? 7)The umteenth prediction of why the Nasdaq has to retest 13, 14 or 1500? 8) The constant refrain of the logical set why stocks are still expensive? 9) The consistent no show of the "killer Application" that was going to save us all, (not to mention our portfolios)? So Gottfried all these things being true.... the bottom is probably past. Regards, Jerome

To: Gottfried who wrote (51158)	8/27/2001 12:22:23 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Another contrarian view - CBS MarketWatch website: cbs.marketwatch.com Economic meltdown? Not for small-caps There's 'good news' in the 'bad news' By Paul B. Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 2:08 AM ET Aug. 27, 2001 LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) - The American media could use some Prozac. There's too much bad news reported lately. It's depressing. Bankruptcies are up. Earnings are down. More lay-offs and write-offs are coming. Hunker down, it'll get worse. The economy may not be in a recession. But sure it seems like the media is already in a depression, reporting one disaster scenario after another. Have they given up hope, resigned to a long economic downturn? Listen: The Wall Street Journal was highly critical of Greenspan for "sending the wrong signal" and giving up his role as cheerleader. His caricature shows an ineffective, frightened man unable to start a fire under the economy. Even arch-bull Abbey Joseph Cohen has turned bearish. The Los Angeles Times says "Fed Move Fails to Cheer Investors," comparing the Fed's action with the extended two-year low rate period 1992-93, speculating that current market lows "signal that the bear market has resumed in full-force." Forbes' latest cover story asks, "What if housing crashed?" worrying that weak markets, unemployment and excessive debt could trigger a full-blown recession. InvestmentNews, the "insiders" newspaper for professional financial advisers, has a huge cover shot of an A-bomb mushroom cloud as a backdrop for the headline: "An Economic Meltdown?" They review negative events that could trigger a global depression. What's going on? Why is this intense negativity dominating the media? Is the market and economy really a total disaster? Or are short-term events being filtered through a new collective negative mindset gripping the media? Financial news - faster, bigger, more volatile We have entered an era of personal and cultural excess. Competitive forces and new technologies encourage the media to grossly exaggerate the intensity, the magnitude and the speed of events - whether positive or negative! CNN and CNBC set the pace. Daily financial news reporting plays like a fast-paced sporting event -- horse racing, boxing, pro football games. BusinessWeek calls it the "hype machine." The new economy may have fizzled, but not the new media's compulsion to exaggerate into tabloid sensationalism. Financial reporting - new sport for bulls and bears Remember two years ago? Everything was as frantic and intense the opposite way. Instead of bad news, "good news" dominated: The information revolution. The new economy. An unstoppable bull market. Triple-digit funds were making millions of new millionaires. Large-cap growth was king. Small-cap value was for losers. The advancing storm clouds were ignored. Then came the 2000 crash and a reversal of fortunes. Think about it. Nothing has really changed for the media. Nothing. Yes, the mindset shifted from positive to negative. But they still have the same preoccupation with exaggerating the magnitude, intensity and speed of financial reporting. In fact, judging from the latest round of depressing bad news, it's accelerating. Good news lost on bad-news bears Earlier I noted this trend to the financial adviser, Paul Merriman. He reminded me that the small-cap arena was filled with good news. Unfortunately, most investors can't take in good news amid all of today's bad news. I wasn't sure. I had to look at Morningstar's July database to confirm this good news. It's true, but we discount it: CGM Focus (CGMFX: news, chart, profile). Fab-u-lous news here: a 94.6 percent return over the past 12 months for the $100 million small-cap blend fund, and 36.7 percent year-to-date! Schroder Ultra (SMCFX: news, chart, profile). More outrageously good news, with an 88.7 percent return for the past year, and 39 percent year-to-date for the $143 million fund. Wasatch Core Growth (WGROX: news, chart, profile). How about the incredible 56.6 percent return over the past 12 months for this $1.1 billion small-cap blend fund. American Century Small-Cap Value (ASVIX: news, chart, profile). Another solid 49.8 percent return over the past 12 months for this $620 million fund. Franklin MicroCap Value (FRMCX: news, chart, profile). A great $242 million fund generating 42.9 percent during the past year. Heartland Value (HRTVX: news, chart, profile). A $1.0 billion veteran returning 37.3 percent over the past year and averaging 18.4 percent per year during the past decade. Legg Mason U.S. Small Value Primary (LMSVX: news, chart, profile). Check out the 38.8 percent annual return for this popular $98 million fund. Can you hear it? Probably not. Even good news about returns in the 37.3 to 94.6 percent range (generated during the market crash and recession) is ignored by fearful investors. And the media has gone from merely capitalizing on this mindset to being compelled by it. No bear experience for 90% of investors Wake up! Market cycles are real: "In the last 100 years we have had more than 25 bear market slumps," says Bill O'Neil, publisher of Investors Business Daily. "And every single time the market recovered and ultimately soared into new high ground." What's different? Today most American investors are newcomers to the market; 90 percent of the money in the market came in the past decade -- during a bull market. New investors, new portfolio managers, new journalists. It's a game full of new players with zero bear market experience. So everybody exaggerating the bull in the 90s is exaggerating the bear now! Good news about bad news - go contrarian Funny thing about cycles, though. Just when you throw in the towel and think they'll go on forever, something can happen, a reversal. Remember early 2000: The new millennium, triple-digit funds, this-time-it's-different, money pouring into the market. And the media and press over-hyping the bull. Now it's just the opposite. Only this time the media is exaggerating the negativity and the bear. And at some point, we'll hit a breaking-point. Then, the bear market and the recession will be as vulnerable as our red-hot small-caps. Bottom line: When the media exaggerates too much, and gets too depressed, when it can't stop from saturating us with disaster scenarios, the cycle is peaking, a reversal is in the making. Expect the unexpected. Go contrarian. Remember Sir John Mark Templeton's advice: "Buy when pessimism is at its maximum."