To: jlallen who wrote (174664 ) 8/27/2001 2:12:59 PM From: Mr. Whist Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769670 Bush must raid Social Security fund 8/27/01 Congressional Budget Office Projects Social Security Surplus Drying Up By JOHN D. MCKINNON Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WASHINGTON -- The Congressional Budget Office projects that the government will tap $9 billion of the Social Security surplus in fiscal 2001, contradicting the Bush administration's claim that none of the Social Security surplus will be spent. The CBO anticipates that the government will return to a $2 billion surplus outside of Social Security for 2002, but shows that the government will again dip into the Social Security surplus by $18 billion in 2003 and $3 billion in 2004. The numbers, to be released officially on Tuesday, suggest that President Bush likely will have trouble fitting his proposed $18.4 billion defense increase into the tight 2002 budget picture. The CBO's numbers show that there is room for only about $670 billion in budget authority for 2002, short of the $679 billion that Mr. Bush wants. Part of the reason is the CBO's economic-growth estimate for 2002. It's only 2.6%, compared with the 3.2% that the White House Office of Management and Budget is projecting. For 2001, the CBO projects a total surplus of $153 billion, all of it from Social Security. That compares with a White House projection of $158 billion, of which all but $1 billion is the Social Security surplus. Much of the difference is due to the fact that the CBO isn't going along with a set of accounting changes the administration proposed that effectively increased the non-Social Security surplus by about $4 billion. For 2002, the CBO projects a total surplus of $176 billion. For 2002 through 2011, the CBO shows a non-Social Security surplus of $847 billion, compared with about $575 billion in the administration's projection. The White House's projection includes a lot of new spending, on defense and other items, that the CBO's doesn't. The CBO continues to show a Social Security surplus of about $2.5 trillion over the decade. The CBO shows a growth rate of $1.7% for 2001, and 3.2% for the decade.