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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjs_ynot who wrote (337)	8/27/2001 1:41:20 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 306849

dave, just a few comments on those articles. 1) delinquency is NOT foreclosure. Depending on the state, it can be 6 months to more than a year from a 90 days delinquency to actual foreclosure. 2) delinquency, at substantially less than 1%, is nowhere near alarming levels. If I remember correctly, 90 days delinquent loans was somewhere around 4% in the early 90s. 3) delinquency by itself is not a problem, especially if we have stable or appreciating real estate prices. Though most homeowners refuse to face reality, most should have some equity, enough for them to sell the home and relief themselves of the big debt. It is when the prices are dropping and negative equity which force foreclosure. Unfortunately, most in trouble would try to hang on for too long, eliminating the simple option of taking a small loss (wiping out downpayment) and getting out. 4) homes sales data is at least 30-60 days behind, due to the escrow period. Today's home sales numbers reflect what happened 2 months ago. We are probably a lot further down today than what is being reported. 5) looks like Wall Street is finally waking up to the fact that mortgage insurance companies should be hit if the sector is heading down. RDN and MTG are worth a look. Ramsey