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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (21392)	8/27/2001 3:58:06 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi Mindmeld, In fact the cost of lighting up fiber will go down.Modulators that can send 2 1/2 times as much data at a fraction of the cost(that planar chips cost )will force all competitors to upgrade even if a glut continues. I don't believe that the glut will continue. Metro Area Network expansion is still a sweet spot of growth.As more of these come on stream a general bandwidth growth will surface. Here is an example of more capabilities at a lesser price.: :http://www.photonicfiber.com/ A very similar argument regarding a glut of overcapacity within the Semi equip Co. is ongoing in many threads.It is my view that technology upgrades implemented by the capitalized, force a keeping up with by the second tier runners up companies.This has so far at least allowed a "maintenance level of production" in an otherwise overcapacity environment. Intel is perhaps the best example of this.They've held with their 7.5 billion expansion plans in 2001. They are the only production line utilizing 300 mm. They also are "amazing" the market by Slashing P4 chip prices.They are gaining market share with price competition in a market that can only be best described as "overcapacity". The underpricing of chips, gains market share,in an environment of excess capacity.It is not intuitive - but it is true that market share gains occur in periods of over capacity by going where your competition can't get to. In a period of under capacity even the weak get fat. This need for continuus improvement will provide a maintanace level of production to those who have the best technology.That technology will be implemanted by those that are well capitalized,in a period of excess capacity - and then implemented by them with vicious price cutting in a period where maximum pain can be administered (like now). These periods of overcapacity allow a catch up of demand and most importantly a re-establishment of the next generations of technology upgrades. My bet is that JDSU will benefit from this period of overcapacity with a general building of demand and most importantly establish themselves as the leaders in new levels of technology (like the above referenced product). Just as cycles of the semi equipment manufacturers have peaked and troughed - future predictions of glory (at the peaks by bulls) and prices going to zero (as our friend Dipy professes) are simply excellent indicators that both extremes are always wrong. Those who have mastered the cycles of technology from past swings know that the middle 70 percent is more than enough to accumulate slow great wealth.So don't sweat the bottom 15 % or the top 15%.Just buy near the bottom and sell near the top - you'll do just fine - even if it takes 5 years. If one buys at 8 or 10 - it won't matter at 27 - the torment of having not been perfect at 5 will have been long forgotten. JMHO Bob