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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (21406)	8/28/2001 9:05:57 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 24042

Hi Dipy, No doubt about it - overhead resistance is perhaps the greatest negative these stocks have to overcome.As long as we're looking into the negatives here - Since September is just around the corner-Tax selling is going to hurt these stocks thru the end of the year. That slow volume dump my losers december trading may well be the time period to actually snag the very bottom. As for how many investors are willing to hold stock for 10 years to make an annualized 19% (no mean achievement) - All I can say is "count me in coach". I think key to that answer is how much money is out there getting a paltry 3%.With the reduction in rates the fed has decimated the income of fixed income earners.Sooner or later this money will flow.Don't get me wrong - they won't be catching knives here - but they'll be right behind the second bottom or consolidation off the bottom. The money stacked up for these times is huge - I wouldn't want to be short and competing for the shares to cover. I'm thinking the bottom in Fiber Optic stocks is coming in here thru December.This will no doubt be a negative.I've just made my initial purchses here in the 8-10 range and as initially indicated I'll watch to see if 7-8 holds - if not then 5 looks to be the next support. For a hint of what might be seen in December look at the premiums on January Puts on stocks like Sunw or Jdsu vs Amat or Nvls. The semi's had their tax selling last year as they bottomed in Oct 2000.Serious money has already poured into these stocks as a level of maintenance has been confirmed.This maintenance status is still of question for the Jdsu's,Sunw's,and still perhaps Csco. Either way they are solid companies(balance sheet wise)leaders in a technology that I believe will serve a greater demand in the future- with margins that are unobtainable in any other industry that doesn't have large cycles. If the future demands this technology then the swings of the cycle are incredibly tough to endure - but frequent enough to make incredibly profitable.This is the key that short term investors lose focus on. If the cycle takes 4 years trough to trough and the swing is 600% (like semi's have had for 15-20 years) - one doesn't need to be perfect but rather patient. Perfect I'm not - but Patient I can be. Keep in mind I'm perhaps a little older than many (49),but I bought Semi's back in 85 when long term meant 2 points in two years was winning.ergh Long term will reward buyers in these ranges.The best buys of these stock may well be between now and the tax selling destined to occur by December. Just be sure you're buying leaders of the next technology wave. JMHO Bob