To: JWest0926 who wrote (4478 ) 8/28/2001 2:47:52 PM From: John Pitera Read Replies (2) | Respond to Jon, I try to post all kinds of articles and data points on here, partly to remind myself of the trememendousstrong 5.5 point drop in the current conditions component as expectations edged 0.4 higher. The 114.3 August level is the lowest since April and just 5 points above the 109.2 cyclical low of February. The drop in current conditions component leaves the lowest level since April 1997 as the 300 bp cumulative ease from the Fed still hasn't lifted spirits . The decline and the lack of a positive trend suggests continued weakening in consumer spending -- the crutch for the economy during a sharp business spending contraction.accelerated at the turn of the year, reached a 5 year low in Feb and has held in a tight, modestly rising range since. Expectations are leading the index higher as current conditions trend lower given the continued weakening in the economy. The confidence recovery will take far longer than the rapid plunge. The support of consumer confidence is a chief Fed concern as declines suggest trouble for consumer spending -- the bulk of GDP and the mainstay for growth. Conference Board's index is more business heavy than the household-heavy Michigan sentiment index.
