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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (361)	8/28/2001 11:39:58 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Tradelite: You've already told us you're a realtor. Please spare us the "they're not making any more land" nonsense from Chapter 1 of the Realtors' Manual. As I have already pointed out, real estate is always a good investment over the long term. However, the long term can be a very, very long time. In the short term, it is quite possible to lose one's shirt in residential real estate. I live in a town where the median sale price was over $1 million in 2000 - ridiculous - and I will guarantee you that 2000 marked a short/intermediate term top in residential real estate prices.

To: Tradelite who wrote (361)	8/28/2001 11:44:24 AM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

No one is magically going to create any more land. No one is magically going to create cheaper land where land is already scarce. So don't expect the prices of new or resale homes to come down that much in the future in heavily populated areas. This is only partially true. There are times when shortages cause prices to rise, but these are location specific and not general. This platitude that "they're not making any more land" is designed to give buyers comfort. In reality there is plenty of land to build on and people are moving away from the metro areas where prices are maxed out. Don't believe that prices can't fall in high-demand areas. The laws of economics aren't repealed in areas like San Jose. Companies won't locate there if they have to pay their workers unrealistically high salaries so they can buy million dollar homes that would be one-fifth that in another location. To do so would place them at a competitive disadvantage. Over time this will depress demand for real estate in even the hottest areas where land is the scarcest.

To: Tradelite who wrote (361)	8/28/2001 12:17:29 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I heard the same thing about Tokyo land prices 10 years ago. BTW, another function of real estate appreciation is LEVERAGE and the latest ownership/equity stats show that actual ownership is at its lowest level EVER. Just like the stock market - too much funny money (3-5% down payments and costant home equity loans) has created a Ponzi Scheme with the backing of Fannie Mae and friends. When the bubble pops (I think it has peaked), liquidity will be the obstacle.

To: Tradelite who wrote (361)	8/28/2001 12:25:14 PM
From: flint	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"Meanwhile the huge baby boom generation's kids are either in or approaching home buying age and need places to live. Have you seen the stories about the overflowing freshman class at colleges around the country, and how college enrollment is expected to stay at current record levels or go higher for at least the next decade?" The baby boomers are heading towards the age of selling. Expect $250K plus houses in metropolitan areas to hit the market with few buyers. $90K condos in Florida should pick-up in value. Flint

To: Tradelite who wrote (361)	6/24/2008 12:22:43 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Fell 15.3% in April (Update1) June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, less than forecast, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001. Mortgage defaults and foreclosures are adding to the glut of properties on the market, while stricter loan rules are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is taking a toll on consumers and the economy. ``There's such an excess of inventories that we certainly expect to see more price declines,' said James O'Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The economy is still weakening and housing still looks pretty weak.' Declines Widespread Las Vegas: -26.8% Miami: -26.7% Phoenix: -25.0% Los Angeles: -23.1% San Diego: -22.4% San Francisco: -22.1% Average of 20 large cities: -15.3% Chicago: -9.3% New York: -8.4% Reports this week may reinforce the dim outlook for housing. Combined sales of new and existing homes in May probably were the third-lowest on record, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Sales May Fall New-home sales probably fell, approaching March's 17-year low, a report from the Commerce Department tomorrow may show. The National Association of Realtors may report the following day that purchases of existing houses, which account for 85 percent of the market, rose last month from a record low. Rising borrowing costs aren't helping. Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer, last week cut its forecast for new and existing home sales this year as 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped to an eight-month high. Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May as they did a year ago and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a real estate database in Irvine, California. Homebuilders are reeling. Standard Pacific Corp., an Irvine, California-based homebuilder, last week said new home orders for April and May fell 12 percent from a year earlier, citing ``difficult housing conditions' in most of its markets. Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s. The S&P/Case-Shiller index and another by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight track the same home over time and more accurately reflect price trends, economists said. .