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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vampire who wrote (368)	8/28/2001 12:38:26 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Not completely true. First of all, Hamptons properties are off 17% this year. In this type of downturn (like the early 90's), one would expect those properties to get hit first and hardest. Secondly, the number of unsold units is increasing every month in Manhattan and vicinity, and real estate agents are negotiating brokers fees for Renters moreso than before. I know this because I just moved. Wall Street hasn't been hit as hard as Silicon Valley (yet) because Wall Street doesn't rely wholly on tech. Also, fixed income trading has really saved guys like Lehman and Citibank - but that won't last. On the sell-side, the heavy hitters haven't been laid off yet. There was a lot of work put into recruiting them and Wall St has been betting on a recovery which doesn't look like it's going to happen. Anecdotally, my buddies on the sell-side who are in my age bracket and have Associate/VP positions at the major banks tell me that they are toast after Labor Day. JP Morgan has already made their announcement of additional layoffs in the Investment Banking Division. One would expect a 2 year lag before the general real estate market gets hit. All the hub-bub about real estate being a "safe" investment and real estate being "immune" is complete B.S. and reminds me exactly of the tech arguments being spouted in March 2000. I think it will pay to be a Contrarian this time.