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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vampire who wrote (376)	8/28/2001 12:53:53 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Just like your friends on Wall street were saying in early 2000? The telecolm business was the hottest thing going, even after the debalacle in other tech sectors. JDSU/CSCO/SUNW kept strong after may debacle. Everyone said LOOK there is a safe haven. Then one day a report came out, a co defaulted etc and WHAM right into the wall. There will be an event that will whack the RE market, we dont know what it will be. When it happens the biz will hit a wall. In 1989 it was the same thing, biz was still hoping the 87 crash was distant history, then WHAM S&L crisis and crash of RE. just remember its not if but WHEN, and why.

To: vampire who wrote (376)	8/28/2001 12:55:26 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 306849

Patience will be rewarded, IMHO. Somebody on this thread or another, put a great chart from Forbes showing the "delayed" reaction of real estate to exogenous economic shocks. I think the most profound was Houston, TX where it took 2 years for real estate to follow the initial crack in oil prices. When real estate DID fall, it fell with nearly the same violence of the commodity it was tracking. Certainly, from a regional context NYC and SF Bay Area are the two markets likely to get hit the worst and I suspect the graphs will look moderately similar to Houston, TX.