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To: stomper who wrote (9060)8/28/2001 3:29:53 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 10934
 
Future Tech

Dynamic 100: Hardware's Hardiest

Lisa DiCarlo, Forbes.com, 08.28.01, 12:00 PM ET

NEW YORK - Half of the companies on this year's hardware Dynamic 100 make data storage products, which should give investors some indication of the still-explosive growth potential of that market. EMC is the leader today but its turf is being invaded by scads of scrappy upstarts such as Network Appliance and Brocade Communications, which made our list, and huge but slow-growing powerhouses houses like IBM, which did not.

The ultimate test of EMC's (nyse: EMC - news - people) mettle will be if it's able to maintain its leadership status in the face of such intense encroachment. Its profit margins have already been squeezed due to price pressure from high-end competitors. But nobody puts more pressure on EMC than EMC itself, a notoriously Darwinian place to build one's career.

Already EMC's shares, at $17, have been outperformed by Brocade's (nasdaq: BRCD - news - people) this year but not by much. EMC is down 73% this year while Brocade is down 71% and Network Appliance (nasdaq: NTAP - news - people) is off 78%.

The only company on our hardware list with shares in positive territory is Dell Computer (nasdaq: DELL - news - people), which is giving a goose to PC sales by cutting prices to the bone. Those moves have cut into its profit margin but made Dell the only PC firm with unit shipment growth. With its just-in-time delivery model, low cost structure and extraordinarily efficient supply chain, Dell continues to excel by responding to a changing marketplace.

Founder and Chief Executive Michael Dell is also smart enough to realize his limitations; he has surrounded himself with a grade-A senior executive team, any one of which seems capable of running the company should the need arise.

A potential snag for Dell: the lack of a credible in-house services business. Many of Dell's competitors are changing their business models in favor of an all-encompassing services-led approach to selling. Dell has said there is no need to muddy its hardware business with consulting and integration, but in the future those things may give others the advantage.

One of the companies bulking up its services business is Sun Microsystems (nasdaq: SUNW - news - people), which made our list by growing its server business faster than any other vendor over the last two years. But a lot of its sales were to cash-drenched dot-coms, many of which have gone out of business. Now Sun's sales growth has shriveled to about 2%.

Will it shine again? That depends on how well it holds up against cheaper high-end servers based on standard Intel and Microsoft technology. Those will be forthcoming later this year from Dell, Compaq Computer (nyse: CPQ - news - people) and others. Sun is also behind the curve in enterprise storage and services, but is trying to make up for lost time with partnerships in these areas.

Finally there's Handspring (nasdaq: HAND - news - people), whose Visor handheld is the fastest-selling computer product ever. Founded by the trio who developed and marketed the PalmPilot, Handspring knows how to make computers that perform a lot of useful functions but aren't baffling to use (are you listening, Microsoft?).

Still, Handspring shares are down 91% from year-ago levels, to $2.79. Sales last year were up more than threefold, to $370 million. But losses were also up to $1.18 per share, compared with $1 in 1999. Profits are nowhere in sight.

Will Handspring make it back on the Dynamic 100 next year? It's possible, if it can capitalize on rival Palm's (nasdaq: PALM - news - people) focus on software development and licensing, rather than hardware. Handspring's claim to fame has been the Springboard module, which transforms the Visor into, among other things, a cell phone or MP3 player. The beauty of it is you don't need any software: Users just plug in the module.

If only it were that easy to be a dynamic company.

forbes.com



To: stomper who wrote (9060)8/29/2001 2:03:29 PM
From: Crystal ball  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
NTAP up today amid NASDAQ/DOW tumbling is a good sign. My point is this, there has been so much news from NTAP and its partners, some reported here, but the key is obviously that NTAP is on the move, it is not asleep at the wheel, it is moving forward and positioning itself to capture even more market share, which will happen with amazing speed and strength upon the general economic recovery. These kind of corrections, usually are V shaped, but let us all face it, this one is not, however, the recovery is almost always straight up. The history is that over the last 75 years the major upward market moves occurred during ony 40 weeks, that is 40 out of 3900 weeks. Less than 1% of the weeks. Timing is everything, but, you can not time the market lows or highs, you have to stay invested. My point is, so far the correction remains in an oversold position, once there is earnings recovery, the same P/E multiples will cause many companies, like NTAP to take off like a rocket. Double earnings, should double or more so, the price of NTAP, and in an earnings recession, coming out of it, doubling or tripling earnings is an easy thing to do. Look at the CSCO news, NTAP said the same thing during their recent conference call. The market zoomed upward for CSCO, but I beleive Warmenhoven (NTAP CEO) that Storage will lead the Techs in the recovery. One must stay invested to reap the rocketing profits. Many have critiziced my hype the last week, but I am just reminding people of the historical facts, you had to be invested during those 40 weeks out of the full 75 years to make big money in the market...anyone want to chicken out now at the last moment? My critics, those well known SHORTS think I should be quiet, they do not want to risk covering their shorts and losing their shirts, we all know who they are (and I admit, I love NTAP and PALM too, what a criminal I must be to love these great companies----at least to the SHORTS) This week or next are more and more probably that 1% week that you need to be invested, or chase your lost profits all the way back up to previous highs. That is the Greed and Fear that History should make us stay invested for the long term. Hindsight for shorts, yes, if we all had such perfect hindsight we all would have dumped the whole darn market wouldn't we. Some did. But maybe some of those short sighted shorts will also totally miss out on the recovery rally, which could happen in any given week. Until then I buy and hold and buy some more, because history says it will happen.
I am,
Truly your$.
-Crystal Ball