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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (407)	8/28/2001 2:29:37 PM
From: Jason W	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Tradelite, I deleted my message, cause I didn't have time to explain it (work), and the tone was clearly negative. It is my opinion, and experience that many boomers are just as debt laden as the rest of America. They either took home equity loans out, refinanced and cashed out, or traded up to a larger house. I do not have a link or statistics to prove it. I would love to see some concrete info to either prove or disprove my assumptions. Things like bigger houses, bigger cars, bigger vacations, second homes, college tuition, etc...are all too much for consumption happy AMericans to resist. By the way, the MND is my favorite book. It sits next to my bed. Regards, Jason PS- brief as possible, cause my day job is busy...

To: Tradelite who wrote (407)	8/29/2001 9:22:27 AM
From: Jason W	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

New Jersey foreclosures jump 15% This was in my paper today. Pretty good timing, and an example of what I'm talking about.. nj.com Experts blame liberal lending, jump in home-equity loans The number of New Jersey homeowners in foreclosure surged nearly 15 percent in the first half of this year. And indicators point to signs that the problem will get worse. The rise represents a breach in the state's strong real estate market, where demand remains high and home prices are among the most expensive in the nation. A jump in foreclosures suggests an increasing number of families are unable to pay their bills in the face of higher energy costs and layoffs sweeping across the Garden State, according to economists and housing analysts. They also point to liberal lending practices that sent homeownership rates to record levels but have left some people weighted down with debt. Housing experts said the upturn in foreclosures is particularly troubling because it means both wealthy suburban mansion dwellers as well as first-time buyers in aging urban centers may not be able to afford their mortgages as the economy slows. "People who seemed secure and bought a McMansion, if they are one of the downsized executives and they have a $500,000 mortgage, they are in deep trouble," said James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. A study by Superior Information Services of Trenton, which reviews foreclosure filings in state Superior Court, said there were 12,047 foreclosure filings in New Jersey in the first six months of this year, up from 10,500 during first half of 2000. A handful of wealthy and fast- growing counties -- Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Union and Gloucester -- experienced a 20 to 39 percent rise in foreclosure filings, according to the study. A separate survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America estimates 0.77 percent of all New Jersey mortgages were 90 or more days overdue in the first three months of 2001, up from 0.65 percent in the first quarter of 2000. Among the hardest hit by foreclosures this year is Essex County, where slightly more than one of eight foreclosure cases in the state was filed in the first half of this year, the Superior study shows. Ken Zimmerman, executive director of the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice, said first-time home buyers in Newark, Paterson, Camden were often victims of predatory lending practices. They tend to be buyers with low incomes and sometimes poor credit, he said. "Urban residents are going to these lenders who offer higher rates and higher fees," Zimmerman said. "When these buyers have a crisis, a health concern or layoff, they will be disproportionately impacted." The foreclosures and delinquencies are up in the wake of major companies announcing round after round of layoffs over the past year. Murray Hill-based Lucent Technologies, Avaya Inc. of Basking Ridge, Tachion Corp. in West Long Branch and Morris Township- based Honeywell all have announced job cuts. The New Jersey jobless rate has risen from 3.6 percent in January to 4.5 percent last month. Despite the trouble, however, New Jersey's housing market remains on fire. "I still cannot list houses fast enough," said Erin Brown, a real estate agent and owner of RE/MAX Llewellyn in West Orange. She said the culprit for the surge in foreclosures was home-equity loans. "People are not managing their money properly," she said. "People have a lot of equity in their houses right now. So a couple might say, 'Let's tap it and redo our kitchen or buy a car.' Maybe they shouldn't have done it because their income cannot support the debt." Keith Gubinger of HSH Associates, a mortgage statistics firm in Butler, said the door to higher foreclosures was opened in the last half of the 1990s, with a national movement to increase homeownership. Now, Gubinger said, "after years of very easy mortgage credit and a downturn in the economy, people are getting bitten by easy money and high debt loads."