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To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (24083)	8/28/2001 5:48:22 PM
From: akmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

One thesis for the strength of the consumer so far has been the continuing appreciation of housing prices coupled with lower interest rates. This allows refinancing at lower rates, extraction of equity, and continuation of the "shop till you drop" syndrome. The folks in this camp say that AG and the FED are walking a tightrope hoping that capital investment resumes growth before the consumer "adjusts" to the economy. We are in a bear market, for sure. How long it will last is the issue, and the issue is still in doubt IMO.

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (24083)	8/28/2001 6:10:51 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock, I am a bit glad that you have finally come to know what Bush is all about. :) I agree with all you stated. However, to me bear markets mean dramatic decline of quities for long periods of time (i.e. lasting 3 years or more). So far we have had the dramatic decline (60% in Nasdaq alone), however since we are only 16 months into this decline and I am convinced the economy is improving not worsening - then I am convinced we are not in a bear market but rather a simple correction in the continuing bull market that started in 1982). As for 1966-1982 (the last secular bear) I do not believe this period was socially prosperous (we had the oil embargo, watergate, the Arab-Israel war, etc.) which all intensified the negative emotions of Americans (and the world in general). Today, however, things are different (socially, economically and politically-- Despite Bush being the president!). Call me an idealistic optimistic fool, but I do strongly believe we are at the bottom of the economic down cycle. Things will pick up by early next year. Having said all that I have to admit the one factor that has started to really bother me very much to the point of becoming a bit scared is the economic policies of Bush. Most notably: a) Idiotic tax cuts that in the final analysis mean nothing to the average consumer, and will only result in big budgetary deficits (especially with idiotic defense programs that Bush is pushing. At least with Democrats the idiotic social programs can potentially benefit average consumers. However with idiotic defense programs only the 1% top corporate will benefit without jump-starting any sector of the economy). This will be disasterous if not stopped, and we will see huge debts added to the already US large debts. b) Global trade protectionism as you also mentioned. Yet, I am an optimist, and still believe everything will work out just fine (by the early 2002).

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (24083)	8/28/2001 10:30:19 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

My thought is that it has been so long since we had an economic slowdown, that the consumer (WHO IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW ANYWAY) has not changed spending patterns because the consumer has not adatpted to the underlying changes ... I read somewhere that fully half of the people in the workforce now have gotten in after 1982. That means, they haven't seen anything more serious than a mild recession. And they haven't seen anything other than a roaring bull-market. This might explain why the consumer confidence is so high while the corporate types (who know better) are so gloomy. A typical example of the exuberant consumer is Addi, who has probably never seen anything other than a blue sky (and an occasional dust devil at the most).