To: gem-x who wrote (17033 ) 8/28/2001 9:44:15 PM From: Andy H Read Replies (6) | Respond to I see two interesting NAZ wave counts. The bearish one is that we are in Wave IV, or possibly V of the bear market. Wave I declined a -40.7% from 5136 to 3043 in May 2000. Wave II was a +40.4% from May 2000 at 3043 to the closing high in July 2000 of 4274 (using the Sept high that was just a bit lower could be used without altering the main counts). (I couldn't find the intraday prices after May, so the rest of the prices are closing prices). Wave III forms a tight trend channel all the way to the April closing low at 1638, a remarkable Fibonnacci -61.7% decline and 1.5 times Wave 1. Wave IV (so far) traveled from the April 1638 to the May 22 high of 2313, a 41.2% increase, satisfying the rule of equality with Wave II. Under the rule of alternation, Wave IV should be complex and would need more time and many waves to complete. Under the bearish scenario, a five wave triangle is a possible formation that would take the time and end in a wave V thrust to new lows. If a Wave V equals Wave I at about a 40% decline, the NAZ would bottom at 1387 [ I'm sure a slightly different number results from using intraday highs and lows], which fits nicely in between the October 8, 1998 intraday low of 1357 and closing low of 1419. 1388 was also the closing high on Jan 22, 1997-the major top from the July 1996 lows. The 1400 area, should we get there, provides powerful support and a five wave decline of almost perfect symmetry. At that level, sentiment would likely hit very extreme levels to support a great rally and possible long term bottom.
