Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : T/FIF, a New Plateau -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (646)	8/29/2001 12:53:11 AM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2243

Just to *#@ me off. <g> quote.yahoo.com quote.yahoo.com quote.yahoo.com but, quote.yahoo.com So, REGN need another 4X to catch NBIX! GO, REGN, GO! :) Miljenko

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (646)	8/29/2001 2:29:14 AM
From: Doc Bones	Respond to of 2243

Interesting that you like REGN as an anchor, it's been quite stable lately, with the result that the options are probably the cheapest of any of the mid-size or smaller biotechs. The options trade for right around 50 volatility, whereas the recent historical volatility is low 60s (Thanksgiving time was 140ish). You may have to pay the ask on a good-size spread, typical of low-volume options. ivolatility.com Last month I had a "strangle," puts at 25 and calls at 30, each purchased quite cheaply when they were well out of the money. REGN taunted me by vibrating gently around 27.50 until expiration - it did feel like an anchor. Bigger stocks move more slowly - lower volatility, and there are attractive looking options in AMGN at 35, and CHIR at 34. They are both lower than historical volatilities, although these "implied volatilities" tend to be pretty accurate, e.g. they were right that REGN was very stable for the last month. Volatilities of most stocks have been low lately, and some feel that you can't have a bottom until volatility is much higher. In particular VIX & VXN, implied volatilities of 2 important indexes, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 are too low. They say you can't have a bottom until these are high - indicating real fear. I personally think volatilities measure stock volatility more than fear. High volatility could mean high greed too, I would think. Doc ---------- Brief Tutorial: Saying that REGN Options sell "at 50 volatility" means that a "typical" option sells at a price that implies the volatility of REGN is 50. "Typical" is not well-defined, it's an average emphasizing the short-term options - nearest month expirations, and strike prices that are near the current stock price. "Volatility" is the annualized standard deviation of the stock's returns (price + dividend, but our stocks don't pay no stinkin' dividends.) The price is usually measured daily, at the close, to figure an annualized volatility, which is expressed as a percent, REGN's implied volatility = standard deviation, is 50% per year. That's all I know, anyone else care to explain more?