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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (7910)	8/29/2001 1:07:57 AM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Elmatador.. I don't think you get it.. The gov't is already off by 44% on their budget under Bush (from 3 months ago), they are now having to bilk 9 billion from our social security trust, that's how fast this decline is! Previously I posted what I believe is happening, the long K-wave, see what you think.. gmsresearch.com UNDERSTANDING THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE CYCLE.. Contraction (depression) is the opposite of growth (inflation). The last Kondratieff Cycle ended with a decade of depression in the 1930's, followed by WW2 and it's aftermath, ending around 1949. All depressionary cycles end in major wars. A new kondratieff cycle began in 1949, below are the cycles of the current 5th such wave which we are now in the process of completing over the next 20 years: Revival: Economic Expansion (1949-1966) Out of the ruins of WW2, 1949 gave birth to a new inflation/deflation cycle. The western economy was rebuilt and by doing so people regained confidence. This optimistic mood resulted in increased business activity and rising stock prices. Suddenly everybody realized that capitalism didn't fail. Governments and the Central Bank didn't want the economy to grow too fast so they tried to control inflation and wages. The first part of the up phase peaked around 1966. Recession: Primary Economic Recession (1966-1981) A long hot summer followed. Prices skyrocketed - helped by two OPEC shocks and so did inflation. This changed the mood dramatically which was reflected by an invisible stock market crash (we have made the crash visible by measuring it in real terms or constant dollars). Too much money, debt and capacity had been created. Inflation (the up phase) peaked around 1981. Prosperity: Secondary Plateau (1981-2000) Inflation had caused lower demand so businesses turned their attention to efficiency: doing more with less resulting in lower prices. Global price competition increased and in order to survive, businesses had to cut costs. This changed the mood to optimism once again. The stock market took off like a space shuttle. The new economy would everlasting prosperity. The creation of even more debt marked this period as the credit card economy. Depression: Economic Contraction (2000-2020) Winters are hard but necesary and healthy. During such a period too much debt, money and capacity will be eliminated. Debt liquidation will change the mood and pave the way for a depression. This will be reflected in a massive drop in stock prices, where 90% will be lost. >><<