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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Jones who wrote (478)	8/29/2001 4:33:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi David, what is <<NIMBY>> ? <<5 or 30% down is not enough considering there maybe an equity drop?>> 5-30% is undoubtedly enough to buy a house, but not enough to keep the house from going negative equity if bought at peak-ish price. <<boomer retirement years ... not ... enough data to draw such a conclusion>> I agree, but investment (as opposed to for own end-use) is often not about waiting around for data, but about anticipation, hedging, and dodging a bullet. A balance between science and art is called for, especially when what passes for science these days is often CNBC hype, or Greenspan mystic pronouncements. The financial revolution has transformed the J6P house equity into just another piece of paper, spiraling in the crimson vortex that has already destroy sum that is false, and has the potential to destroy much more. Such is always the nature of revolutions ... transfer of wealth and spilling of blood. J6P ought to start positioning for the possibility that he is wrong about what is coming at him, as opposed to re-using the 'science' that has failed him miserably so far, before the gains in NAV, as in the case of Nortel 'profits' over the past seven years, is all gone. I am simply providing another counter point for folks to consider, aiming to convince no one in particular. SI enables us all to witness some pretty deliberate financial suicides. I believe I am positioned for entry into either mind numbing deflation or heart thumping inflation, and once in, I will have to make some awfully dangerous moves to go forward. The data, as you say, is not in, and thus RE deserves no special overweight allocation, especially if not for own use. Chugs, Jay

To: David Jones who wrote (478)	8/29/2001 5:51:45 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 306849

Hi David, I got a PM on meaning of <<NIMBY>>. Well, these artificial development blocks will snare a bunch of victims when tumbled down, just as California's power generation development blocks did. Economics will, sooner or later, and often at the most inconvenient time, overwhelm politics, with all voters holding the bag they helped to construct. Depending on the longevity to artificial limits to supply, especially in the proverbial long term, is not a good investment strategy. Chugs, Jay