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To: Earlie who wrote (118649)	8/29/2001 9:27:51 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie from Earlie: August is drawing to a close. And as we all know, as the days grow shorter, both types of bears commence a period of engorgement in preparation for winter hibernation. Will they enter their winter caves well-insulated or are they destined to shiver through the winter? Your intrepid field naturalist, Earlie, has been surveying the canyons and forests and reports that in spite of the unprecedented "clear-cutting" of virgin timberlands by the Fed (to feed the printing presses), which has reduced the territorial hunting grounds for some bears, nevertheless, a remarkable resurgence in the reproductive activities of wild sheep and goats, ensures an excellent source of protein and fat for resourceful ursine prowlers. Herewith our reasons for expecting bulked-up bears. - trucking is showing no signs of rebounding. Normal fall/Christmas stocking activities should have caused a noticeable rise by now. - with few exceptions, retailers are expressing the view that their expectations for this fall are lower than last year. - generically speaking, inventories across most sectors (and especially in tech land) remain above normal. Inventory levels remain a serious concern across the land, hence ordering for the fall/Christmas selling season has been subdued. - airline load factors continue to sink, both for people and packages. - for a variety of reasons, most forms of N. American consumer borrowing are exhibiting shrinkage. Still not definitive, but reduced borrowing equates with reduced buying (and the economy depends on the consumer now as never before). - lay-offs (THE most important indicator of future economic activity) show no signs of abating. - globally, trade flows are falling. There also appears to be a degree of negative acceleration in the trade figures. - financial sector problems are starting to ooze out into the open, and not just in Japan. "Loan portfolio" is becoming a misnomer. - the Q3 warnings period, which is just getting underway, is going to be a "hell-dammer". Even the most creative "pro-forma" accounting is not going to be able to spread strawberry jam across this mould-savaged bread. Offsetting the above is the frenetic activity of a "frantic Fed". Good luck to Sir Alan Greenprint with his mega coupon passes and repos. Hopefully he has stocked up on plenty of Viagra for his continuing "pushing-on-a-string" romancing of the economy. Best, Earlie