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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (75664)	8/29/2001 12:37:45 PM
From: lorne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

Miningweb (Johannesburg) BROADCAST TRANSCRIPT August 28, 2001 Posted to the web August 29, 2001 Byron Kennedy The latest in a series of Q&A sessions with respected precious metals analysts in the wake of bullion's recent foray beyond $270 per ounce. Under the spotlight is Deutsche Bank's Ingrid Janson. MININGWEB: Do you think gold's recent rise has all been dollar-related or is there more to it? INGRID JANSON: I think it has been primarily dollar-related. It has been the main driver. Nothing in our view has changed in the gold market. Central bank sales continue to cap the upside and also we've seen lease rates coming down recently, which is also capping the upside at the moment, even though we've seen renewed weakness of the US dollar. The other thing is related to market risks, such as falls in the equity market. I think that has been the other main driver that has prevented gold from falling any further and re-testing 20-year lows. There has been sufficient market risk or money basically switching out of equities and to some extent finding its way into gold. MININGWEB: Has your view on gold changed over the long-term now that it's up at around the $275 mark? INGRID JANSON: No, it hasn't. We maintain our forecasts going forward. We do have a $270 per ounce forecast for this year and our long-term forecast is $290 still. By long-term ? that's beyond 2003 and in real terms. MININGWEB: What factors should traders keep a close watch on? INGRID JANSON: Lease rates is one, the other is currencies. MININGWEB: Speculators seem heavily "long" at the moment ? surely that poses a threat to gold on the downside as well? INGRID JANSON: Well the Comex market is net long at the moment and that's a reverse from net short in the previous week. That's absolutely right. That is another factor limiting upside potential at the moment and that's why we've seen prices remaining fairly stable. There don't seem to be many positions out there that could be covered. As you rightly say, the fact that the Comex market is net long, that is a negative factor for prices continuing to rise. MININGWEB: It does seem like a new range is being formed? INGRID JANSON: Yes, definitely. And we see the next key technical resistance is $281 at the moment. That is another factor ? technical chart formations are also an important factor. MININGWEB: That's $281 on the upside; what's the number to look for on the downside? INGRID JANSON: $272, I believe. MININGWEB: And if gold does crack through $281, do you think we might see it spike through $300? INGRID JANSON: Maybe not $300. $290 is the one after that. MININGWEB: So the gold bulls out there who are expecting $320 per ounce any time this year, are maybe going to have to wait a lot longer? INGRID JANSON: That is my view, yes, although this market can move very quickly. But I think if the price rises rapidly, just as we've seen in the past those spikes are going to be fairly short-lived. If they were sustainable at all we would see a further reduction in physical demand, for instance, if prices rose. allafrica.com

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (75664)	8/29/2001 12:38:34 PM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

I believe you deciphered his cryptic handle. It is kind of ironic that as no smoking, his activities involve blowing a lot of smoke up the boards ass. Ken