Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Clutts who wrote (504)	8/29/2001 5:15:56 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 306849

several indicators in my book: - changing trend in employment and layoffs - end of rising interest rates (not appropriate now) - shortening of "time on market" for home sales - reduction in #units on market for sale first two are more leading in nature last two are immediate readings then you have weird things like increases in minimum landsize for new construction, moratoriums due to water shortages or school limitations, etc / jw

To: Raymond Clutts who wrote (504)	8/29/2001 7:00:47 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Raymond, I am physically and metaphysically too far away from Chicago to even attempt at advice on piloting such a move. I know my limitation:0) None-the-less, I would imagine watching the share price of housing related stocks, and for headlines reading thus, "Housing is Dead" would be apart of the navigation program. You also need to consider the unnecessarily complicated, inadvisably convoluted, sometimes totally incomprehensible, and high maintenance US tax system concerning how long the main residence can be sold without having bought another main residence, and still qualify for the gains tax exclusion, the likely range of home price drop, etc, etc. For owner-resident, I would (did) buy when I thought I was happy with the price. I bought my first place in Hong Kong in December of 1998 (closing in Feb 1999) at the depth of our 60% 'downward technical adjustment phase', when pricing went from USD 2,200 to USD 900 per square foot. I was happy to rent for 11 years (bachelor, of course, else wife would have revolted) as price rose steadily up but rent much less so. Got married in 97, but promptly sent wife on her way to B-school, thus avoided buying residence at peak, in exchange for an 4-SUV tuition bill and some free time :0) Speculation on the main residence is to be avoided if possible, because we can be wrong, inflation zips up, housing price responds promptly, and wife screams every night while living in a rented house. Chugs, Jay P.S. We are in uncharted territory, and we do not have the imagination to guarantee a smooth and successful navigation. The US innovation of mortgage backed securities has more closely and fatefully linked US residential housing to the global financial market, thus anything can happen. Message 16276687

To: Raymond Clutts who wrote (504)	8/29/2001 11:13:53 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 306849

<Any suggestions on which leading indicators are best suited for monitoring in order to time a transition of that type? > I would dump that existing home like a freakin hot potato! Lived in Chicago '80-83 and 96-'99, man what a shock going back! There were Porsche's parked out front of restaurants in neighboorhoods where I wouldn't even WALK back then! The only sign on any of the buildings was 'Cervesa Fria' back then... now? 'Cafe Zinc' Valet parking $10. The boom in Chicago residential real estate was mombo, I expect the bust to be the same. dAK