To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33873 ) 8/29/2001 6:40:34 PM From: Johnny Canuck Respond to of 69904 15:10 ET ****** Take-Two (TTWO) 17.21 -3.99: Before the start of trading, TTWO posted an in line profit of $0.04 per diluted share, excluding extraordinary and non-operating items. Net sales of $84.5 mln were up 18% from the yr-ago period, but slightly below the consensus estimate of $88 mln. On its call, management attributed the shortfall to the delay in releasing its Rune: Viking Warlord PS2 title to international territories, but did acknowledge that it expects to pick up the sales it lost in Q3 in its fiscal fourth quarter (Oct.). Investors haven't been too satisfied with that contention, however, as TTWO also announced its highly-anticipated Duke Nukem Forever title for the PC won't be released in Q4. Despite the delay in releasing Duke Nukem, which was said to be a sign of the company's commitment to quality, TTWO affirmed its FY01 guidance of $1.00 per diluted share and $500 mln in net sales, highlighting the introduction of Grand Theft Auto 3 and Smuggler's Run 2 for PS2 in late-September and its confidence in the current catalog of games. Separately, TTWO provided FY02 guidance of $1.20-$1.25 (consensus is $1.21) in fully diluted earnings per share and $590-$610 mln in net sales (consensus is $597 mln). Although management maintained an upbeat tone throughout the conference call, it was evident that analysts were a bit skeptical of the company's ability to meet FY01 guidance without the Duke Nukem contribution. Moreover, they weren't exactly sold on management's goal of reducing DSOs from 92 in Q3 to 80 by the end of Q4. Management attempted to allay their concerns by pointing out that receivables in Q4 should be easier to collect with the release of titles in September versus the last few weeks of the quarter, which proved to be detrimental in Q3. In any event, TTWO is suffering today primarily because it disappointed investors with its delay of Duke Nukem Forever and the Q3 top-line shortfall. Fortunately, the entertainment software industry is on the cusp of an exciting growth period with the launch of new platforms from Microsoft and Nintendo, and the continued appeal of Sony's PS2, that will work in TTWO's favor. For the time being, though, TTWO investors are finding reason to take some money off the table due to concerns about the company's execution at a time when it can ill-afford to fall behind the growth curve in the face of competition from the likes of Activision (ATVI), Electronic Arts (ERTS), The 3DO Co. (THDO), Midway Games (MWY) and THQ, Inc. (THQI).-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com