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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (573)	8/29/2001 9:18:02 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Jay, I am more thinking along the lines of the sequence of events along the lines of semi equipment companies. Who are the front end and who are the tail end companies? As an example, if the market slows, then the companies who had been making a ton of money off loan origination should be hurt first. CCR has been originating loans at $10B pace. Is this sustainable? Some analyst from Warburg was pumping FNM on CNBC last week. He said FNM is cheap, considering FNM's earnings growth should be in the 13-14% range for the next 2-3 years. I wonder what the loan volume has to be for FNM to grow at this level, from the break neck pace of the last 2 years? IF default rate actually starts accelerating, then the loan portfolios holders should have big problems, not to mention the mortgage insurance companies. Title companies could also be hurting. Old Republic? We have not even touched on the commercial lenders. When will that cycle start and what would be the indicators? If retail is weak this Christmas, shopping malls and strip centers could see a wave of tenants filing bk. This is the reason why I am starting to pay a lot more attention to anything real estate related. If we are going to have a recession, it is going to be a "good" few years before it unwinds. Ramsey