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To: AllansAlias who wrote (11657)8/29/2001 8:58:06 PM
From: The Freep  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Quibble away. You think I remember something from TWO WHOLE WEEKS AGO???

OK. . . well. . . we're actually already getting close to your S+P approximate target based on your arrows (which I know don't give targets), and we're ahead of schedule to boot. Are you thinking more painful up and down here, then? I realize there's nothing that prevents your arrow from leading to a retest, correct? And since the S+P didn't really rally too much, is your alternate 3 still possible? Interesting on both fronts.

I just don't see what could start a real big C wave in mid- September (well, a surprise rate cut or a bellwether saying "we see growth" or. . . or. . . but I'm talking LIKELY things <g>), but I guess that's kinda the point. Still, that's why I was leaning to. . . if I may steal a term from the gemster. . . a double zigzagging up and downie type of thing that still includes the October massacre but adds a surprise rally that fakes out one last bunch. I don't know that there's time for it all, of course. Heck, I don't know much trigonometry or much about the French I took, either, but that never stops me. . . .

the freep



To: AllansAlias who wrote (11657)8/29/2001 9:36:21 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Allan: Re: "One scenario we really hadn't seen anyone talk about was a crash/fast decline right here (and beginning of Sept, too, perhaps) followed by a surprise September rally (and the oft talked about October fall)."

See September of 1998 rally. The low for that rally was made on August 31st after a dreadful month much like this one.