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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (40760)	8/30/2001 1:11:35 AM
From: Cactus Jack	Respond to of 65232

Scott M, "There are a lot of opportunities in that scenario, should it play out." Amazing thing about life is that opportunities abound in dark times if one knows where and when to look. Good point you made. jpgill

To: Mannie who wrote (40760)	8/30/2001 8:40:49 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

08:31 ET Economic Data : Jobless claims fell 1K to 399K in the Aug 25 week, roughly in line with the 400K consensus. Personal Income rose 0.5% in July vs 0.3% consensus and spending rose 0.1%, in line with consensus. Not much in the way of surprises here, though the weaker than expected spending figure is a slight negative given that it suggests a continued deterioration on the consumer front. ________________________________________________________ Scott: We could get a nice technical bounce next week...we are getting to very oversold conditions...JMHO. Enjoy the holiday weekend. Best Regards, Scott

To: Mannie who wrote (40760)	8/30/2001 9:43:13 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

watching Real Estate for weeks and weeks in my opinion, it has already fallen and turned over supply has overcome demand in several cities, two essential indicators have widened 1. supply has increased sharply in mid and upper end properties the stat is "units on market" 2. time has increased for properties that remain to be sold the stat is "time on market" -- shelf time (a pair of highend properties are just sitting in Pitt nearby my work site, just sitting, now two months) anecdotes tell the story, if pervasive enough like the greater economy, the news lags in this sector if the heavy weight of excess supply is having trouble in moving into transactions and sale, then lower prices will have to do the trick first come those who must move the property (e.g. neighbor of friend in west suburbs Boston who must sell and get kids settled with new school season in New York City suburb) prices are coming down, now in that process but we wont have official statistics for a few months just like the economy might be in official recession now, we might have RE prices coming down right now also but also, perversely, like the Federal Reserve problem, lower rates cannot increase demand in many instances if layoffs are mounting, and fear is rising, and discretionary (unnecessary) sellers are joining mandatory (must, e.g. job relocation) sellers, then we are gonna see lower prices no two ways about it I laugh at the argument about how people must live in homes they do, but they can rent then again, many rental markets are very tight also (e.g. that didnt stop my Staples colleague from selling at peak in May, finding a nice 2-bedrm rental, now awaiting lower prices, will find something to buy in late 2002) I think it has turned the corner it starts with the high end in fact highend lower prices have been recorded already next is the upper middle range then comes the real meat -- standard single family middle range each range pressures the next, with constant comparisons after a little while, a new ugly hits this sector as prices come down, certain sellers will back out and leave their houses on the market longer and worse, some banks will refuse the loans due to poor appraisal values, since "comps" will not support the sale price that is how lower prices feed upon themselves evidence abounds anecdotally that counts as data, just not complete data I believe prices peaked in May also, that is roughly when RE brokers cockiness peaked / jim trivia: anyone know why it is called "Real Estate" ??? what is "real" about it? well, given my strange world, I prefer "unreal" estate answer forthcoming after an hour or so