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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (3899)	8/30/2001 8:18:55 AM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206085

Stan: People's willingness to lower the thermostat a little and save a little electricity might make an impact if they thought there was a crisis. Most people are not affected by the stock market and employment is still very high by historical comparison. Electric demand monthly average year over year is averaging 2.5% higher than last year with people saving and manufacturing output way down. People will hear NG prices have crashed and see no reason to conserve. Part of this increase in residential demand must be all the huge new home being built every day. The NG bubble will be burned by power plants beyond a doubt. The EIA data is indisputable that a major shift from NG to primarily #2 oil occurred. Even if OPEC collapsed today and flooded the markets #2 oil would not be competitive with NG at <$3.50. I am assuming that since the GDP data reveals a very significant drop in inventory over the last 3 quarters that manufacturing will pick up and the vast pumping being done by Greenspan will at least improve GDP each quarter going forward. With a normal Winter and OPEC effectively maintaining quotas withn 700 kbpd I dont expect a collapse. In fact I bet we will bust $30 WTI this Winter if it is normal in the northern Hemisphere.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (3899)	8/30/2001 4:27:40 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206085

Stan & Quehubo - Conservation is alive and well in California. People & companies are cutting electricity use, and this will stay cut back, especially with current economic FEARS. Also in California, the sky high NG prices shut down an number of industries. The flower business, which used NG to heat green houses, was killed when NG went over $8.00 (on it's way to $17.00 in CA) and many of them have quit, and sold the land for real estate development. Flowers now come from out of state & out of country. All the Aluminum smelters in the Northwest - you won't hear anything about them re starting for anohter year, if ever. Last winter's price spike may have permanetly killed some of the marginal demand. This will mean it may take longer to get supply and demand back in balance - maybe summer of next year.