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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (81614)	8/30/2001 12:16:35 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Unfortunately, the TECH investors by keeping the TECH valuations so high make it impossible for Companies to attempt a merger thru purchase. This means that the effects of the glut will be very protracted , perhaps extending out to three years or more. In brief , I see little chance for any meaningful rise on the NAZ as the current prices already have built in sky high earnings expecations which will at best be realized 2-3 yrs downstream. In regards to M&A, I think a lot of the healthier companies within technology would find the CEO's sharing a similar view of Siebel's CEO, Tom Siebel when he says - and I paraphrase - "I don't want any cheap merchandise." in regards to acquiring some of the beaten down, lesser companies. We might simply see some folding doors and empty parking lots as the overcapacity works itself out. Granted, the stronger or strongest of the stronger will benefit in the eventual cleaning out process, but many of them have no need of purchasing tainted merchandise no matter how cheap it appears. I guess time will tell. A company I used to follow and invest in years and years ago - the number 2 casket maker in the US - had the shareholders approval this month to be acquired by Matthews International. Then again, death is a never ending commodity, isn't it? BB