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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (902)	8/30/2001 12:13:22 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 36161

Hi frank, My suggestion is to watch some of the Canadian NA patch players, there is going to be some excellent opportunities in the next couple of months. IMHO, stay away from the crude plays, they're going to be killed here shortly. Actually I've been LT bullish (mainly NG) (also why I follow craig's thread) IFF the economy cooperates, so maybe optimistic is a better word. I'm still short to intermediate term bearish, which of course can always extend, because I'm waiting until the economy tells me otherwise. Hence I only kept my ELH play :o( and sold all my other energy plays :o) :o) (except for some minor toe dipping in trusts which has been fine) For me it's all to do with the economy. My suggestion is to watch some of the Canadian NA patch players, there is going to be some excellent opportunities in the next couple of months. Agreed, hence my post a few days back to Art re: AEC. I'm not committing any big money to anything except of course my PM's and my FAX (a play on the US buck) holding is now moderate. As with your posts about a multitude of topics, mine don't necessarily indicate what I'm buying nor my mood unless I say so, for example my mention of Ford. I'm still in capital preservation mode so I guess that makes still pretty grizzly :o) It would be nice to have a plan going forward (with contingencies), once we begin to take serious profits in our PM and hedging ventures, n'est-ce pas ? Markets down in Europe and NA all significantly today... gold turns positive..... If this is going to be a Fantastic Voyage... I want a spot with a seat belt, near an exit door...... regards Kastel a cute and cuddly Canadian, struggling to be proactive.... or as Vinny Barbarino once said ' *I'm sooooo confused* Oh Yeah and beside Raquel Welch too.

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (902)	8/30/2001 12:36:23 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi frank, Don't think about me getting too optimistic LOL. I read this stuff too. I view NG as a leading indicator here. Oil prices might be manipulated, but one false step on the part of OPEC and you'll see your $18 in a NY minute. Consider that this recession is now being exported overseas to the real oil users, and managing supply to a mid-$20s price regime is going to get trickier with every slow passing month. Betting on OPEC is a big gamble. Message 16276951 regards Kastel a cute and cuddly Canadian

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (902)	8/30/2001 2:55:04 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

Looks like Dow test of Mar/Apr lows OR lower by end Sept. is in the works. Lot of things I look at are lined up like the planets in 2001 Space Odyssey when Bowman and Poole got to Jupiter!<g> 1. First warning signal to me that there would be no summer rally came as Insiders across the board evinced only tepid buying interest in their own company stocks through the Apr/May rally. And other than another minor blip up, they've sold into the strength making successively lower lows and lower highs as per the net activity chart below: insidertrader.com Here's one of the recent comments (8/15) from Insider Trader: "Insiders certainly called the market's Summer doldrums correctly...and still don't indicate that the long-awaited rebound is near. The ratio of companies showing insiders buying versus selling has been bearish for over a year now, and last week the trend continued: there were 56% more companies with Form 4s filed indicating sales than purchases. An illustation of these depressing numbers can be viewed on our Insider-based Market Indicator. Numerous market prognosticators have suggested that the worst is over for the market, and that it will recover ahead of the ailing economy. But they thought that a few months ago as well, and were proven wrong when the stats and earnings warnings showed the economy was in worse shape than they most believed. Insiders weren't fooled, though, and they are still telling us that any broad-based market recovery is not likely in the near term." 2. Sentiment continues to point to far too much complacency and lack of the kind of fear that's pervasive at important Intermediate or Long Term bottoms. Invest Intel survey out yesterday still showing more Bulls than Bears. In fact bears hardly budged from the 30%+ number in the previous weeks report! Bulls only dropped to 43.9 from 46.9% the previous week. In the several major Bear Markets I've worked in I've never seen a major low in place until Bears are 50% or higher with Bulls sinking into the 20-30% range. Another sentiment warning is the high asset allocation to equities currently being rec by the major W.S. Houses. At the bottom they will be preaching the bearish tune. They are a great contrary indicator. In other words we have A LOT more downside to go. Sentiment measures don't turn on a dime. It takes plenty of both time and price to achieve the bottom numbers we need to see. 3. The US Dollar is just beginning a Bear Market from extreme values of overvaluation when will push both the stock and bond markets much much lower. During the long preceeding Bull Market, foreigners accumulated an unprecidented level of dollar denominated assets. Believe it was Steven Roach or Paul Kasriel who pointed out that foreigners now own 40% of our Treasury paper!! As the dollar decline continues, they will come under increasing pressure to exit those bonds and switch to another currency or asset that will at least maintain a store of value role. As they exit in greater numbers, a vicious circle will develop with a impact on US fixed AND equity markets. Remember the Fed can only control ST interest rates. Intermediate to Long Term rates will stay subbornly high even with weak domstic demand for credit because such a huge %age of our Treasury market is more dollar sensitive than in any past economic slowdown! That's part of the deflationary risk the Fed is afraid of. 4. The recent continued weakness in the broad market indices is beginning to put institutions under a lot of pressure to sell with the end of the 3rd quarter barely 30 days away! The deeper we get into Sept, the greater this pressure will become. IMO we are starting the biggest selloff of the year right now. Regards, Isopatch