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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54782)	8/30/2001 11:32:43 AM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77400

I also think that the number was kind of manipulated, but not quite to that extent. A lot of the government numbers involve a lot of guesswork, and a lot of this guesswork comes from pretty young kids right out of college. There's a lot of pressure not to make those guesses appear too bad. In the end, when the 'real' numbers come out, it gets reported as a year end adjustment and doesn't get reported extensively. A great example of this is the productivity numbers from last year. They were adjusted down approximately one third form the final 'reported' number. It wouldn't surprise me if the BEA, in its year end adjustment of various baselines, manages to sneak in a year end adjustment that takes the 2Q number to negative ground. While that doesn't qualify in my semantic world as manipulation, nonetheless the end result is the same--the number reported is not the same as what the number actually is. then again, to think that we can get accuracy within 0.2% on a number as subjective as the Real Gross Domestic Product is a pretty big leap as it is.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54782)	8/30/2001 12:05:53 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi Mind, I talked to about half a dozen Wall Street bankers and traders in the past several years. It seems to be that a consensus among them is that the numbers released from government are massaged just like the earning number from the likes of CSCO, but not to that extent. The big bankers did the calculations themselves and maybe they did not like the number they got, and used the opportunity of government releasing a better than expected number to sell to the suckers. Eventually it's us average Joes that are left holding the bag. The other issue that I am worried about is the real estate bubble. When that one bursts eventually, what are we going to do?:) larry