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To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/30/2001 2:31:20 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 186894

Tim, great post, though I'd hate to be caught empty-handed when the "nuclear winter" passes. Also, excellent points you've made regarding Napster and the college scene. It's a shame to see the recording companies shut down Napster (though probably for legitimate reasons), only to drag their feet when it comes to (legally) filling the void for online music. All this only to protect their profits made on mass-produced crap for music that you see on MTV these days. I'd also like to add another point to your list, and that is the success of next-generation game consoles like the Sony Playstation 2. While these consoles have not replaced the PC like some feared, it has taken some of the spending dollars away from consumers who might have otherwise spent them on PC upgrades, etc. For example, I've got a 1 GHz Pentium III system, but it's running off of the 815 integrated graphics. I was going to buy a 3D graphics card, but lately I haven't been playing any 3D games on my PC. Why? It's because I also have a Sony PS2, and the excellent games on that system are currently satiating my thirst for 3D games. I don't want to end this post with a negative tone, so I'll just say that I hold out a lot of hope for the mobile and server markets in the next twelve months. Those will be the two markets which will help lift the entire PC industry out of its slump. Tenchusatsu

To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/30/2001 2:41:41 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

Tim, re: So, perhaps a "nuclear winter" for a couple of years. Maybe another year to go... Good post, I agree. People forget that it was just over a year ago when PC sales were peaking at 50% YOY increases. Of course there will be a flat/down period after that, you have a whole bunch of relatively new PC's on peoples desks and in their dens. You have excess capacity to drive down prices. Funny about the things you mentioned that were the apps that created the last upgrade cycle. Two years ago, I never associated my PC with playing music, now it's central to my enjoyment of music. My point is that most of us don't see in advance what will be the next application that will drive demand. It sneaks up on you. My guess is that TIVO like TV recording onto the PC hard drive, and networked to the TV, will become mainstream within the next three years. I don't know if that drives an upgrade cycle, it can't hurt. John

To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/30/2001 2:47:06 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 186894

Tim, <<<. But I don't see wireless driving the upgrade cycle for _desktop_ or _laptop_ CPUs.) So, perhaps a "nuclear winter" for a couple of years. Maybe another year to go...>>> Sometimes it is very difficult to see the forest when there are a lot of trees in the way. The upgrade cycle is not monolithic. At this point, I think it is quite complex. What I am trying to say, I think, is that although anecdotal (or personal) experience should count for something, I don't think it should count for very much in these complex times. Mary

To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/30/2001 3:42:27 PM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Folks are still doing lots of music ripping. They are just getting it from CD's rather than napster.

To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/31/2001 3:31:18 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Tim, RE: "A "nuclear winter" for CPUs?" When I asked a F1000 IT manager if their PCs could handle the load our stuff could potentially put them under, the IT manager said they were planning on upgrading all of their corporate desktops over a period of 3 years in order to adequately handle these types of new application uses. And if the mobile trend collides with the desktop, it just means the mobile picks up the performance requirements. He also gave me the impression his contacts at some of the other F500 firms were also planning on upgrading their PCs. I think there's still a need for an upgrade cycle in corporate America. The point of my post is, future performance requirements are based upon future needs, not the stuff from the past, nor applications available today. The demands for future performance requirements are based upon creativity and vision. That's more of a creative art, than a science. When driving into the future, a person has to look ahead, not into the rear-view mirror. Regards, Amy J

To: tcmay who wrote (142496)	8/31/2001 1:10:26 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Tim, Ref - <Nuclear Winter for PC > Dont you vividly recall the same gloom and doom talk in 85-86 when the 8088/80286 computers were all that the world would need, and we were desperately looking for new mass applications. Yes, we are presently in a nuclear winter for all high tech, because all business capital spending is at a crawl. As long as the consumer does not get affected by this malaise, things should recover in a reasonable period of time. Regarding the PC, I shall repost what I said in December Message 14969210