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To: Andy M. who wrote (24114)8/30/2001 3:02:44 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Respond to of 25814
 
OT: Andy, of course, it is not "buy lowest, sell highest". I have always said that about LSI. I never tried to get the exact top with LSI. In fact, my average selling price last year was almost 30% below the peak. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For getting back in, I might get interested in LSI only in the mid-teens even though I think it could get lower than that. If it doesn't make it to my buy point, it's OK by me.

Regarding the overall market, I am not looking for a magical moment to get back in, though I do wish there indeed was such a moment. For example, when I get the seasonality signal from Sy Harding (http://www.syharding.com -- subscription needed), I am going to get back into SPY/DIA with at least a portion of my cash reserves, regardless of how bearish I might be feeling. Then there are Strategy Indexing funds like HFCGX in which I stay invested regardless of the investment climate.

You might say I am playing it both ways, and might say that's not fair. My answer to that is -- It ain't "Buy lowest, sell highest"; it's "buy low, sell high."!



To: Andy M. who wrote (24114)8/31/2001 8:10:07 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Respond to of 25814
 
OT Re : As far as your general bear market comments go, by your reckoning since 1929 we've had about an equal number of bear market and bull market years. How then did the DOW manage to gain 9000 + over that time?

I look at it this way. If there had been no down years for the Dow at all between 1929 and now, an investor would have made about 18 times more! So, obviously there is a lot of money that can be lost in bear markets.