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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (21491)	8/30/2001 6:07:16 PM
From: Runner	Respond to of 24042

Well, there have also been a lot of buyers here today too. I took a small position here at 6.45. Am I catching a falling knife? Time will tell, but I have never been able to pick a Top or a Bottom.

To: Timetobuy who wrote (21491)	8/30/2001 6:16:09 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 24042

re: Stocks do not go up that much on a percentage basis in general In general, that's true. In this specific case, I don't think it will be true, because: 1. JDSU is a volatile stock in a volatile sector 2. single-digit stocks tend to be more volatile. In a rational world, this wouldn't be true, but in the real world, it seems to be. 3. the market is sitting on a knife edge, waiting to see whether the Fed can revive business spending, before consumer spending crashes. This means increased volatility, IMO. We will see repeated nauseating swings in sentiment and stock prices, as the market alternates between hope and fear. I am not trading the stock. I am trying to establish a LT position. My plan (incremental buys on dips, and partial incremental sells on rallies) is an attempt to establish that position at prices somewhere near the bottom. The plan assumes I am not smart enough to know the time, or price, when the stock finally bottoms. My plan depends only on the bottom being somewhere between 1 and 5. The stock will bottom at the time of maximum uncertainty, fear, and doubt. As soon as the market senses the faintest whiff of a hint of a ghost of certainty about future business conditions, the stock will take off. If the bottom is at 2, a "take off" could be a wild rally, a burst of exuberance that ramps the stock all the way up to 4. I won't know if that rally is a false rally, or the beginning of a LT upmove, until long afterward. And, if I see the stock repeatedly failing at prices below my sell-points, then I will adjust those sell prices lower. Since I have a substantial amount of cap gains this year, I won't mind some tax-loss selling. It may take as long as a year before my LT position is finalized, and I expect to do a number of buys and sells. As always, I will post my moves in realtime, with my reasoning.