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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dealer who wrote (40821)	8/30/2001 7:13:08 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

From: donald sew Thursday, Aug 30, 2001 4:44 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17378 AUG 30 INDEX UPDATE --------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs SPX - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs OEX - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs NAZ - OVERSOLD/BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY, NEW LOWER LOW NDX - OVERSOLD/BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY, NEW LOWER LOW SOX - LOWER MIDRANGE, IMPERFECT 3-BLACK CROWs RUT - OVERSOLD REGION, NEW LOWER LOW MSFT - OVERSOLD REGION, NEW LOWER LOW VIX - OVERBOUGHT(inverse to market), NEW HIGHER HIGH NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = NEGATIVE 148 5 DAY TRIN - 7.66 If the market continues down, I would get CLASS 1 BUY SIGNALs for most of the major indicies tomorrow, with the BUY-IN until MON's LOWs. It may take the NAZ/NDX an extra day to get the CLASS 1. Lots of NEGATIVES developed today: 1) The NAZ/NDX established LOWER LOWs, so all of the major indices have set LOWER LOWs 2) MSFT established a LOWER LOW. I consider than as an important negative development since MSFT is the largest of the NAZ/NDX stocks, making up about/over 10% of the NAZ/NDX. Quite a few of the bigger NAZ/HiTECH stocks have been setting NEW LOWs while MSFT was holding up relatively well and one of the few areas of relative strength; unfortunately with the LOWER LOW its a hint that MSFT could head lower - that ain't good for the NAZ/NDX 3) The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs continue to get worse. As mentioned in the past, the DOWNSIDE BREAK in the RISING WEDGE in the NAZ HI-LOs could be a significant hint of negativity in the NAZ/NDX, which has been the case. 4) CAW-CAW-CAW!!!! 3-BLACK CROWs all over the place. As mentioned by some, the FINANCIAL indices got the 3-CROWs yesterday. And we get the IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs in the DOW/SPX/OEX, and possibly in the SOX also(imperfect 3-BLACK CROWs). Reposting an earlier post on SI about the CROWS: >>>> For those who are not familiar with the "3-BLACK CROWS" pattern, it is a very reliable and one of the most negative candlestic patterns. After a 3-CROWs the index either continues straight down or could bounce. A bounce that follows immediately after the 3rd day of the 3-CROWs should be small and not exceed 1/2 of the total length of the 3-CROWs. Thereafter, selling should resume and commonly intensifies forming lower lows. What makes a 3-CROWs more negative than other candlestic patterns is that the negative effects could linger for some time, while most candlestic patterns are for the short/immediate term. Also, there are 2 types of "3 BLACK CROWS", the normal 3-BLACK CROWS and the "IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs". The IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWS" are more negative....<<<< Here's the one positive I could come up with. On my WEEKLY charts, the DOW/SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX are all about 1 week away from getting a CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL on a WEEKLY BASIS. WEEKLY CLASS 1 BUY SIGNALs are significant in that they are highly reliable in producing some sort of a rally, even if its only a small one, and could also identify a MID-TERM/IMPORTANT BOTTOM. Im not yet going to say that the forthcoming WEEKLY CLASS 1 BUY will definitely identify a MID-TERM/IMPORTANT BOTTOM, but the possibiity is there.

To: Dealer who wrote (40821)	8/31/2001 9:36:29 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Democrats usually set policy in motion that is inflationary then they walk away and leave the office for a Republican always a lag of a couple years to see the effects of policy right now we are seeing the combined effects of three things 1. Fed encouraged a bubble in 1999 2. Clinton refused to share some of the annual budget surplus in 1997-98-99 3. Congress deregulated many energy delivery systems in mid-1990's the bubble burst we see surplus returned in part as rebate checks (or do we?) energy prices shot up, then relaxed now we feel the aftermath all at once and morons blame Dubya Bush he had nothing to do with any of the above the current tax rebate checks are penny ante next up: headline news on layoffs everywhere as corporations give up on 2ndHalf Recovery on mining stocks, their peaks will be spikey for sure gotta ease out of them with profits their combined mktcap is so small / jim