To: Teri Garner who wrote (13158 ) 9/1/2001 8:38:41 PM From: 2MAR$ Respond to of 208838 Nikkei to breach 10,000 unless policy (mighty-mouse) saves day By Nathan Layne TOKYO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Tokyo's once-mighty Nikkei 225 average could soon breach the key 10,000 level for the first time in 17 years, analysts say, slapped down by economic weakness and slow-moving structural reforms. ``I want to believe the market won't dip under 10,000, but it's a struggle staying positive right now,'' said Yoshinobu Muraoka, fund manager at DLIBJ Asset Management, which oversees 402.65 billion yen ($3.37 billion) of investment trusts. ``We know the Japanese economy is bad, but a pretty bearish scenario forms when you throw in dwindling confidence in policy and heightening risk of a global recession.'' Concerns are that the United States, Japan's number-one trading partner and a key market for Sony Corp and other major high-tech exporters, will spearhead a world cooldown. Data released on Wednesday showed the world's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the second quarter -- its slowest pace in more than eight years and well below a previous reading of 0.7 percent. And unless Japan's leaders can speed up progress on pledged reforms, traders say the Nikkei will soon blink on screens in four digits for the first time since August 1984. To put it in perspective, that same month, the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - news) stood at around the 1,200 mark. On Thursday it ended at 9,919.58. Some traders say the Nikkei and Dow may soon cross paths. On Friday, the Nikkei share average of 225 liquid issues shed 2.06 percent to 10,713.51, having lost more than 70 percent since the peak of Japan's asset bubble era in December 1989. SENSITIVE TO TECH STOCKS To be fair, a major reshuffling of components in April 2000 made the Nikkei more sensitive to price movements of expensive technology stocks and less effective in reflecting the overall market trend. But the market's broader TOPIX index (^TOPX - news) is also wavering. A capital-weighted index of all first-section issues, the preferred yardstick of institutional investors is down 14 percent since the start of the year and hovering at March 1999 levels. ``While 10,000 is psychologically huge for market sentiment, it means nothing to me from a technical point of view. I'm focusing to see if the TOPIX will hold 980,'' said Toshi Saito, general manager at Priore Asset Management. The TOPIX hit a post-bubble closing low of 980.11 in October 1998 when the country was in the throes of a financial crisis. It ended Friday at 1,103.67, still 11 percent above that nadir. ACTION ON REFORM A major factor in the market's recent slide has been growing pessimism on whether Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi can deliver reforms without crippling the domestic economy. Market participants expect Japan to have fallen into a recession on two consecutive quarters of contraction by the end of September. ``A key determinant will be whether a more concrete policy response emerges before a minus GDP (gross domestic product) figure for the April to June period hits the market on September 7,'' said Testuya Ishijima, chief strategist at Okasan Securities. Specifically, Ishijima echoed market pleas for more details on the use of the Resolution and Collection Corp (RCC) in mopping up banks' sour loans, a stock-buying fund aimed at making lenders less vulnerable to market volatility, and a reduction in the capital gains tax to lure more individuals to stocks. Some sort of response could serve as a positive surprise to the market. Significant progress on reforms and a possible supplementary budget are not widely expected until after the GDP data are announced. A Reuters poll of economists produced a median forecast of a 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter drop. BANKING ON DISAPPOINTMENT Falling stocks have rekindled concerns about financial health in the banking sector because lenders depend so heavily on profits from huge shareholdings to pay dividends. At the close of Wednesday's trade, Japan's 15 top banks held a total of 1.89 trillion yen in net latent losses on those holdings, according to an estimate by Daiwa Institute of Research (DIR), a research arm of Daiwa Securities Group . If the Nikkei slipped to 10,000, DIR said that number would balloon by 2.8 trillion. Comments from Hakuo Yanagisawa earlier in the week have not helped. The head of Japan's Financial Services Agency said the outstanding balance of bad loans at major Japanese banks would likely remain near current levels through fiscal 2003. ``The more this problem seems to get pushed back, the easier it becomes for investors to sell banks,'' said Yuji Nakamura, strategist at Shinko Investment Trust Management, which oversees 2.73 trillion yen of investment trusts. ``Their falls don't have as big an impact on the Nikkei average as techs do, but their woes are a pretty good indication of where the market is headed.''