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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (81631)	8/31/2001 12:58:35 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bruce - Tom Seibel is one of few that seems to me has been reasonably honest thruout this market. INTC VRSN CIEN CSCO all damn liars as far as I can tell. Yes, Siebel has remained as honest as possible and responded as quickly as possible in regards to the slowing demand - both in his comments and in his management of the company. That doesn't matter in regards to the stock price, but it might be worth storing in one's memory come time for his comments on business improving. He might be as honest and on target with that side of the equation when it appears. I'm not sure that I would go so far as to call other managements "liars", as the slowing demand has been deeper than expected. Not just in technology as we will see in the coming quarters. Even the president of the ECB, after cutting rates yesterday for the second time this year, responded to a question that he and his staff were caught off guard that the US slowdown was so deep and they didn't anticipate what that would do for European growth. I'm not sure what the global central bank rate cuts are up to at this point in terms of how many cuts have been enacted. Between 95 and 100 easings seems about right (plus or minus a few). The usual full round is somewhere in the neighborhood of 160 for an economic cycle. So we have about 60% to 62% of those cuts already under the belt and a little more than a third to go. At some point in time, the global rate cuts will have a result of turning the ship(s) around. It simply takes time as the economic wheel rotates through its cycle. BB