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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (16132)	8/31/2001 12:15:41 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi NYCB, Nope - I'm not suckin into that fear monger crap. 12 is safer than 80 period. I don't know how long you've been risking your life savings but that is just crap. In all the years that these stocks have been churning out earnings and accumulating wealth - well it just doesn't vaporize. Now dot coms can disappear - granted that speculation was a MOMO play. Don't confuse real companies with business plans and IPO's! I've been invested in tech stocks way to long to suck up into the "it's going to zero" fear mongering. Companies with depreciated assets and proprietary technology that when in demand results in 50 % margins and 11-15 % bottom line profitability will rise to high valuations over the treasuries,mutual funds, or value stocks - all within their due cycles. Yes you can reference the Japanese good ole boy system that fails to recognize losses to save face,or you can quote periods of time in our stock market that the indexes were stagnant. This is a market of stocks.They accumulate into strong hands,shakeout the weak, and mark up to attract the gullible momo crowd. The reality of it all is: if you are in a long term trend of technology - the cycles are short and the swings on a percentage basis are VERY REWARDING. That's just history. The doom's sayers who blatantly beat up dynamic companies with tremendous technology that simply command margins like no other industry segment can - with no debt - plus huge cash hordes are just as disgusting a MOMO player on the down side, as they we're the naive who knew it was "nothing but up" on the blow off top. I can handle being "no more than 12 points off" when the next growth cycle rewards the long term investor with a 4-6 bagger. You see I've endured being wrong in the tech sector before.I didn't sell at the top and I rode a leveraged account down the slippery slopes of a 65 % correction - and held with tenacity and confidence - gulp. Don't get me wrong - it is scary. But if you think I'm buying into your vision of going to zero - well you can count me out. I'm on record - I've made my buys and I'm not pretending to be a guru. It most likely will go some lower - in fact I'm hoping it does - that's when I margin out aggressively. But when stocks get low like they are now - and markets get oversold like they are now - I DON"T WANT TO MISS THE TURN UP !!! I've been there, done that, and it's fast - so fast you miss it. If you haven't been there you don't know. When it hits - the only game in town is chasing. Cause the shorts (who in case you haven't noticed have a huge RECORD position to cover - RECORD HUGE three months in a row). They are the boys running for the door - all at the same time(just like it was at the very top). You think you're gonna be special and snag stock out from under them when they're placing a bid at 15 or better when the current bid ask is 14.5 to 14.75 - and it gaps up to 15 1/8. You're sweatin bullets - bitching about the market makers who just sucked up the capitulation sell-off and won't provide liquidity(and you don't get to fill anything(or maybe a 100 lot) when your bidding an 1/8 of a point over the ask. Nope I'm not buying your"it's going to zero".Nor your -you have to make 35 % to cover the last 2 points you lost.Most of that supposed lost will get handled by the open on the turnaround day. It's cool to be negative and all knowing. I encourage you to promote it - cause when all the newbie shorts get the squeeze trap put on them - they'll be feeding my recovery. You go back and study the long term trends and we are not where shorts should be getting cocky - we are where they should quietly be covering.Their biggest problem is the volume hasn't allowed them to cover.Their still blinded by greed trying to make the last 15 % - that at best could only be called a risky scalp. The risk in this oversold market is in not being covered and in not being in. If you were smart enough to be out in March-April of 2000 - then you're smart enough to be covered and in right now or somewhere in here. Bernard Baruch made himself wealthy by selling early - I suspect he averaged down and held for the long term and bought early also. I prefer to spend my money when my bid takes advantage of a controlled market - not panicing in the midst of a "fast market". If that means I patiently wait for my capital gains holding period to occur - Be Happy - Don't Worry. Just as at the top, there is entirely too much prediction of going to zero out there - just like there was way too much "To Da MOON" 18 months ago(that's right it was 18 months ago and a lot of nice solid consolidations have occurred).It is getting very close for the right side of the cups to get built!In fact many have done it - NVLS,AMAT KLAC. These last shakes are hammering the last of the sacred cows-those stocks that cranked on in the face of the semi's and equipment stocks getting the same action put on them. It's just a cycle rotation,within the last sector to get clipped Oh yea EMC and memory where in that untouchable zone as well). I suspect a final shakeout where the averages get violated (on a short term basis) and the strong who have recovered from an inventory sell off will get back to a moderate sales rate at the price they command. This will fall against a year old poor quarter and average valuations will be restored relative to historical standards. PE's,P/S's whatever - you have to be early, anticipate the swing,not expect perfection,and MOST IMPORTANTLY : be patient. Then about the time you think you so infallible you know the market - sell early and stay in cash. If you buy too soon - be patient - be confident and above all buy debt free segment leaders that own a niche which is protected by significant barriers to entry. JMHO and IT DARN SURE ISN'T GOING TO ZERO. For the record 80 is more expensive than 12 - it should be intuitively apparent - unless of course you are scared beyond reason. That is certainly not my problem. You seem to need a bad case of "THIS TOO SHALL PASS" IT WILL !! "HOLD WITH CONFIDENCE" the assets of the company you own are not always properly reflected by the price of the stock-THANK GOD. The unjustifiable swings of the stock market are not something to fear - they are there to be taken advantage of. IN CONFUSION LIES OPPORTUNITY - ENJOY !!! Bob