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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (13162)	8/31/2001 7:32:43 AM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 208838

using Kramer as any kind of indicator can be hazardous ! Even the "Kramer" from Seinfeld ? lol Here's one for the thread -- it looks to me like the market thinks ORCL is gonna warn or report earnings/bad forward guidance. When they do, the short covering will be inevitable and the bounce after the open should be good for a quick gain. ORCL is at 12 now ... maybe post warning they will plunge to between 8 - 10. I see a lot of talk about technical indicators and support levels and so on. I'm gonna take a page out of Bill Fleckenstein's book and caution all regarding the use of technical indicators or support levels or whatever during extraordinary market moves. No technical indicator or chart predicted the NASDAQ move from 3000+ to 5000+ back in early 2000. The charts can be equally misleading on the downside as well. FWIW -- last Sept a LOT of people thought the NASDAQ was "oversold" at 3400 because the daily stochastics and other indicators suggested it. I decided to look at the situation and the WEEKLY chart and guessed the NASDAQ was headed to 2600 - 2800. Anyway, just as the charts and support/resistance levels could not accurately guide anyone through the period of irrational euphoria, they need a lot of interpretation when using them to predict anything now. Chris