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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (33954)	8/31/2001 12:01:40 PM
From: shasta23	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69835

Jim... What are Internets? Aren't they on the Endangered SPecies List? Oh, i forgot, due to backlog Gail Norton doesn't allow anybody on that list any more! STefan

To: j g cordes who wrote (33954)	8/31/2001 12:54:08 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69835

10:28 ET ****** Novellus Systems (NVLS) 44.42 -2.31: So, what's all the fuss about? Novellus Systems did what any investor would hope a company would do in a mid-quarter update-- it confirmed that it was still comfortable with the earnings and revenue guidance it provided following its Q2 earnings report. Specifically, the company said it still expects earnings to be $0.24 per share and revenues to be $300 mln; and yet, its stock is down noticeably today. Had the company been able to stop there, plenty of investors would be crying foul at the market's seemingly unjust response, but as it turned out, NVLS had more to say, and therein lies the disappointment. The added detail that has the market troubled is that bookings, expected to be $160 mln, are going to be at the low end of its original guidance, which was $190 mln, plus or minus 15%. Shipments, meanwhile, are expected to be just below $200 mln versus a prior forecast of approximately $215 mln. Like Sun Microsystems (SUNW), NVLS had some disconcerting words about Europe and Japan, clarifying that business in those regions is about as bad as it has ever seen. All in all, the key takeaway points from the update were that demand continues to be weak and visibility remains poor; moreover, there are concerns that industry conditions aren't as stable as many pundits think. CS First Boston, for one, has its reservations on that point, intimating that it finds it difficult to equate a 36% sequential decline in bookings as a sign of bouncing along the bottom. Separately, Robertson Stephens downgraded NVLS to BUY from Strong Buy, and both Banc of America Securities and Salomon Smith Barney expressed skepticism that NVLS can achieve its FY01 new order guidance of $800 mln as it would require a 38% sequential increase to $220 mln in Q4. Following NVLS's update, Briefing.com thinks it is fair not only to be skeptical of NVLS's prospects, but to be skeptical of the sales and earnings prospects for other chip equipment companies, too.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com