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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7249)	8/31/2001 12:41:58 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Wasn't taking a shot at Jungle for posting it, and enjoyed reading it. It was an interesting article. Also agree we could easily go a lot farther down in the short term, especially if we get another "asian contagion" or Long Term Capital type event. Very selective in buying here and picking up some great companies on the cheap, companies I thought might never see these levels again. Also being careful to not overuse margin. 3 big reasons I am highly confident that any drop from current levels will be very short lived: 1. Short interest is at ridiculously high levels, absolutely ridiculous. Coiled spring anyone? This one's really compressed. 2. There is a lot of liquidity on the sidelines waiting for a good entry point, or at least strong signs the economy is turning. 3. There are now strong signs the economy is turning. As long as the media is bearish shorts will probably prosper because the average Joe will be continually exposed to negative news. Regular reporters were outside the NYSE the other morning, hoping to get blazing headlines like "RECESSION AROUND THE CORNER?" from the revised GDP numbers. If the media starts getting bullish, look out above! :o) Down or up in the short term? Throw the dice and take your chances. Down or up by end of year? I'm confident my portfolio will be up ... a lot. The ONLY thing I am concerned about is avoiding a margin call if we do tank.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7249)	8/31/2001 12:46:20 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Jungle/KB Re: the article and the ARMS Index In its recorded history, an ARMS Index greater than 1.5 represents such an oversold condition that it has never failed to produce a reversal. It is the perfect indicator. This article does not mention this fact. Will this time be different?? Is this bear market worse than predecessors? Who knows. I just know that right now history is still on my side. Warp

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7249)	8/31/2001 1:18:05 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Kodiak, I wonder if there is much of a fundamental difference in expectations between your point of view and that of JQP, Warp, and myself. None of us are talking about whether the market will bottom and turn up mid term, we all expect that, the only questions we have are when to enter. You expect a near term big blowoff based upon, I believe, fundamental analysis AND technichal analysis. If I understand you correctly, you are looking at things like tax loss selling, earnings in tech and other factors as well as the vix. I see that possibility but think that near term it will turn up. If we are all right about the view that the market will turn up either now or after the next drop, JQP's strategy may not be the optimal one, but it is one that will pay off within weeks, months or longer. I've been in some of the situations you describe and I always thought that was the smell of old jock straps or unwashed shirts. Now that I think about it, however, you may be right. I think the fear of losing and the anticipation of gaining might smell much the same. gg. Ed

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7249)	8/31/2001 1:19:10 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Looking backward from 5 years from now today may be a good time to establish positions in several stocks, or index funds or the market as a whole. But I'm not going to get in an argument with the market on this last day of August, no matter what signals the TRIN is sending up, because the market is saying bad storm ahead. If someone is looking to establish new positions at the current time, then it's important to develop a plan and stick to it. Whether it's averaging in, picking some lower point on the chart to start buying--or waiting for a higher point on the chart to start buying after a trend has been indicated, having a plan is the key. I have stated many times on these threads that I would probably start building long side tech/semi positions in Sept/Oct of this year. I haven't changed my focus and I'll start sifting through the rubble during the next few weeks to see what jumps out at me. Since I have a tendency to focus on small and mid cap stocks, the issues I select may not be appropriate for others (like aerosappy). For those looking out and who have a multiple year time horizon, the most important issue, in my mind, is to do your research. If you're looking to place a large stake on a single company or industry it's very important to find out all you can, to fill in the gaps. Balance risk vs reward and try as best you can to eliminate the noise.