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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (33915)	8/31/2001 6:55:08 PM
From: besttrader	Respond to of 37746

WOW, great post VELO! Thank you very much! :)

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (33915)	9/1/2001 3:47:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Commentary on Ewave Analysis Ok Guys - Which is it? ======================================================== Subject 51336 Go to the thread header and see what Gem-x has to say. Here is an excerpt. Tomorrow should provide clues as to what wave we're in, and my most bearish stance is that we're in wave 4 up, and wave 5 down should be the wave that sends real fear into the market. But my most bullish stance with Elliott Wave is the fact the both zigzags conformed to equality, and once they hit equality, a suprisingly strong rally developed. NASDAQ forecast 3782 early next year, S & P 1482, DOW 13,500 Changing NASDAQ forecast from 3026 to 2965 year end, and immediate short term (next month or two) to 2526. So far, here's the wave count of the "C" wave of the 2nd zigzag in the double zigzag...all the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place. The first wave down in the C wave was 2105 to 2012 (93 points), 2nd wave was 2012 to 2042, 3rd wave down was 2036/2042 to 1879 (1.618 X 93, wave 1), wave 4 was 1879 to 1930 (.333 rally to 1931), which means wave 5 should be equal length to wave 1, which is 93 points down from 1931, which is 1839-1840. I expect "the rally" to start tomorrow, which should retrace at least .500/.618 of the 450-500 point wave down from 2328 to 1839-1840, which would target 2105-2140. That wouldn't guarantee a wave 3, because there's always a chance of the triple zigzag. (The rally could be another X wave in a complex multi-zigzag correction. I'm gonna cover all the bases.) But a 250-300 point rally is something this market could get in the next week or two. Put call ratio is stratospheric, and could get higher (it's at 1.08 right now)..? ====== From the Sharck Soup Board Thanks to Velociraptor Message 16287426 That breaks the current down trend. Indexes are now in consolidation mode and clearly in corrective wave structure. Since, this consolidation is longer than the previous consolidations of the last few days, we are no longer within that wave series as it is correctin to a larger degree. That means the 5 wave move down we saw over the last few days was all wave 1 of a larger degree and we are now in wave 2 of that same degree. Just using the DOW as an example, the DOW fell about 550 points for wave 1. Wave 3 is often at least as long, but more likely to be 1.618 times the length of wave 1, or about 890 points. So wherever this "rally" tops out, you can subtract about 890 points and that should be the target for wave 3 down. Another, note, the less this rally retraces the first 550 points, the higher the odds increase that wave 3 may be as much as 2.618 times the length of wave 1...or about 1440 points. Thus far, at the peak, the DOW has only managed to retrace a whopping 29% of the down move and we're still below that key level of 9960, having closed under it for 2 days in a row now. ========================================================= One of these scenarios is correct Gem's or the one above Which one? Or are they both wrong? So drastically different as to be about 100% useless. That's what I mean about Ewavers can not get their act together. Anything this complicated, subject to this much intrepretation, while totally ignoring everything but waves has to be nearly useless. ========================================================= FWIW - Place Mish in the second camp. Any rally here with NVDA at 85 EBAY at 57 (no capitulation on these), MU near 40, semi-equips at nearly insane levels, MUFU fund flows negative, J6P still buying calls, calls of a 400 point Naz rally are just plain silly. M