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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (103510)	8/31/2001 11:35:07 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

There is also the other minor reality of existing debt loads and ability for the borrowers to service more debt. With reduced competition as a consequence of increasingly insolvent competitors, pressure to increase infrastructure build out in Telecom's is easing. Wireless is not immune. I know that the there are some parallels between the wireline and wireless industries....but I think the fundamental difference is the relative health of the operators in each industry. While you can point to a host of wireline operators who are having significant operating trouble (Global Crossing, Level 3, MFNX, T....the list is a mile long), the list is much shorter for wireless companies. I think even more critical is the fact that nearly all of the wireline operators have been seeing slow growth in their core businesses (even those not in danger of bankruptcy). This is in stark contrast to the continued growth for most wireless companies. I believe that the second quarter results for these companies illustrate the amount of EBITDA that is being generated in the industry. I think you will have some trouble naming a single major CDMA operator that is currently running into trouble. The largest CDMA operators that still are worried about access to the capital markets are probably LWIN and Pegaso. Neither is critical to the success of 1xrtt.... There are some examples of GSM operators that have run into operating trouble. DT, BT, and KPN are probably the best examples of companies that are being weighed down by their debt loads. However, there are still a host of GSM companies that have NOT been slowed by the collapse of their stock prices. VOD, Telefonica and Hutchinson Whampoa are still generating huge amounts of cash flow....especially compared to their debt loads. In addition, the structure of the 3G auctions in Europe guarantee the entrance of at least one new operator in many of the markets. For example, Hutchinson Whampoa will not be able to rely on their GSM voice networks to pay off the price paid for spectrum in the UK. They are putting in a green field network. If even one operator in each country puts in a W-CDMA network it will put considerable pressure on the rest of the operators to upgrade. If a W-CDMA operator is unable to compete with GSM operators then we were wrong on a far more fundamental point that financing. I am far more concerned about the technical aspects of the W-CDMA roll-out... Slacker Hmmm...now that I reread my post, I am not sure that I am making a coherent point. I think I will attempt to find some numbers to illustrate the fact that many of the wireless operators (GSM and CDMA) are not actually in financial trouble.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (103510)	9/1/2001 12:49:03 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

siliconinvestor.com I love the Vodafone graph. Couldn't happen to more deserving people. As you say: <There is also the other minor reality of existing debt loads and ability for the borrowers to service more debt. With reduced competition as a consequence of increasingly insolvent competitors, pressure to increase infrastructure build out in Telecom's is easing. Wireless is not immune.> They have got some expensive spectrum to finance, let alone build anything. I have $1 to buy Vodafone's assets. I will sell all other assets for scrap metal and keep the Globalstar gateways. That share price graph is one of the more elegantly perfect. $7 a share looks to be the rounding-out price, ready to flare for touchdown and zero in a couple of years. A MOU price war for subscribers would be a lot of fun about now. They do have to get some cash from somewhere. Mq