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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (7298)	9/1/2001 3:14:57 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

This is a nice article, Gottfried. It would be great if we could take data back to 1960, then recalculate the ARMS Index based on the actual percentage of true equities in the NYSE. Then compare data today vs. other previous instances of ARMS > 1.5. I can't say that this index has exactly treated me well. Back in March of this year, I started buying tech equities when the ARMS first started flashing oversold signals. I was wayyyy to early. I was up 17% YTD in late Feb.. I plunged all the way to -25% by early April, before the reversal occurred. At this time, the ARMS Index hit 1.5 on March 16th. Evidently I did not learn from history, I started moving in again too early this current instance. I was up 15% YTD in July, now I'm off 14%. The fact that I am even with the S&P500 with 50% tech gives me a little comfort. I am positioned for a ARMS Index reversal - but what if it doesn't happen?? Since I don't use margin, I guess I can't lose it all, but I could get roughed up pretty good. I remember thinking the same thing in March, "What if the market doesn't rebound? What if it doesn't work this time?" Since the market went to such excesses in early 2000, maybe it will take a little longer to bottom?? Warp