Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (7302)	9/1/2001 8:29:20 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Warp, >> If the markets rebound as I am positioned for, the NASDAQ will lead << You may be right, but allow me to do a little thinking aloud here please. There's a lot of money on the sidelines and I don't envision it being in any hurry to go to work. It's been sitting there a long time so we have to assume it's patient money and smart money as well. Is it logical to expect smart money to try and time a bottom? What will it take for smart money to commit itself? Where will it go? I've been racking my brain, trying to come up with some common sense answers, and to be honest, I have far too many questions and not enough answers. I have a tendency to think that smart money will probably flow to the companies that supposedly represent investment value for people who depend on their investments for retirement income. In that scenario I would think companies like GE, MSFT, GM and IBM would represent the best value going forward on a risk/reward basis. I would think the companies of this caliber would attract the dollars first. If the economy is going to improve in the very near future, I would assume companies like PG, KO, EL and F would give good solid returns over the next 12 months. Again, assuming the economy recovers. I'm guessing a lot of the technology stocks have so much overhead supply that it'll be a long drawn out process before they make any substantial gains going forward. I'm referring to long term holds here, not trading opportunities. The NASDAQ is down over 20% in just the last couple of months. What sort of performance are we to expect from it for next year? Can we reasonably expect it to finish down 10% this year and up 15% next year? I don't know. It doesn't seem logical to me. What's the catalyst that'll drive the market? Money on the sidelines and the market being oversold aren't catalysts. Improving orders? Improving inventories? Losses slowing down? Earnings leveling off? I don't see any of those items motivating smart money to jump in with both feet. I would assume smart money would have to have assurances for significant growth before committing money they have been so jealously protecting. Assurances, not risk. (Well, as much of an assurance that one could expect in the market place.) What assurances will cause that money to finally say, "OK this is it, this is where I will finally put my money to work." Without that money, all we see are trading opportunities, in my opinion. I think my bearish attitude the last few months is turning me into a first class curmudgeon! My trading philosophy is changing though. Instead of the 3-5 day trades for 4-8% profits on a repeated basis, I'm looking for more intermediate term trades now. Perhaps 3-6 month holds. I'm thinking more consumer oriented though. If the economy is truly going to improve soon, I would think the consumer cyclicals will be among the first of the beneficiaries. Again, my post was linked to you but I'm just thinking aloud. Looking for simplistic answers in a complex world. This old curmudgeon isn't asking for much, eh? dabum