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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (723)	9/2/2001 7:10:31 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Well, on the balance of probabilities, it all looks like FNM puts to me"... Now, I may be termed a late developer, slow thinker, who cares. I can just repeat what climaxing Meg Ryan screamed at Billy Crystal:"Oh meGads, yes, YESSS>> ROTFL! Yes, tough decisions with put sales...I've been parceling 'em out a little at a time. Everyting left is long-since free. Market's oversold, crashes always occur from oversold levels, etc. I'm just covering and put selling bit by bit. FNM's a special case. Probably worth keeping some exposure there, on the "derivative-meltdown" longshot scenario. Just not very much (<1% of total assets). RDN and MTG look interesting, as do the builders. Despite the claims of some, building remains a heavily cyclical industry. Just because they survived in '90-'93 doesn't mean they are immune to a growth slowdown in the industry. Again, look at the oil drillers to see what happens to cyclical industries as growth peaks...it ain't purty! stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf] Lots of head and shoulders being "built" in the builders: Lennar (textbook H&S, rising neckline, measures 25-ish): stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf] Pulte (pretty...a combined double top-inside-a H&S, measures to around 20): stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf] Toll Brothers (double top measures to 16): stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf] You get the idea. When chart-chasing and fundamentals reinforce each other, it's time to act. My very humble opintion only.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (723)	9/3/2001 5:26:23 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I have FNM on my hit list, too. Looking about ripe for a fall. Incidentally, here's a trivia question for you. Who was the woman who uttered the famous "I'll have what she's having" line? (Answer at bottom of post) Real estate in our neck of the woods (Canadian West Coast) is actually pretty good this year, after about a 10 year sag, a fact the real estate board is happy to mention ad nauseum (the picking up part). We're a retirement and government community, and townhouses are going up quickly everywhere. I was in Vancouver last week, and there's lots of construction downtown. Don't know about the burbs. CD p.s. The woman was Carl Reiner's wife.