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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (103585)	9/3/2001 11:05:21 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 152472

Maurice, >>QUALCOMM has the financial and political muscle<< There is no argument that Q has the financial muscle. The politics in the current administration, however, leans toward AT&T, SBC, the TDMA proponents (including Hughes Electronics), and in general, the members of the stodgy part of the telecommunications establishment. I'm betting the U.S. Supreme Court will grant a hearing to the FCC in the NextWave case, which will force additional delays on the implementation of any expansion of CDMA services over spectrum held by NextWave. It matters little whether the Supreme Court eventually rules in favor of the FCC or NextWave, because by the time it rules, a lot of CDMA patents will be close to expiration, and the ultimate question of who makes money on CDMA will be moot. This scenario reminds me of the situation in the 1940's, when Colonel Armstrong gave his FM radio patents to the public, allowing anyone to broadcast on FM or build receivers without having to pay licensing fees or royalties. Even then, RCA, the major patent holder for AM radio, tried all sorts of tricks to sabotage FM, including making cheap radios that were designed to drift off frequency, thereby discouraging consumers from buying FM. I appreciate your optimism that CDMA will prevail, but I think anyone who understands the politics and the history behind similar technology innovations is bound to make known all the potential pitfalls. It has been more than a year since QUALCOMM resolved its problems in China (problems tied more to the U.S. posture toward Taiwan than anything else). It has been more than six months since QUALCOMM made known the superior economics of CDMA2000 over WCDMA and announced compatible chip sets to allow GSM users to migrate to CDMA2000. And where are we now? We've hardly gone anywhere towards that 3G objective, not because of the technology but because of the politics. This is all I'm saying: The best technology doesn't always prevail. Art

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (103585)	9/3/2001 12:48:41 PM
From: S100	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Your buddies at Vodafone plus GPRS down the tubes? Forget 2.5G, 3G, it's 802.11 stupid Doubts about GPRS, but WLANs could be the future By Chris Nuttall, FTMarketWatch.com 5:06:00 PM BST Sep 3, 2001 LONDON (FTMW) - No amount of name-changing is going to cover up the disarray in the mobile sector. BT [UK:BTA] obviously hopes to make a fresh start in 2002 with its new name for BT Wireless, mm02 (mm is Roman numerals for 2000). But the future is not bright, nor Orange, according to the latest analyst predictions. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter issued a Mobile Stocks Downgrade Warning last Friday, cutting its recommendations across the European sector with reduced ratings for Vodafone [UK:VOD], Orange [UK:OGE] , Telefonica Moviles [DE:589401] and Telecom Italia Mobile [US:TIMIF]. See Ratings Watch MSDW said that it was concerned that "GPRS will not prove the key enabling technology as expected." GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), also known as 2.5G, is seen by operators as an interim data service that will bridge the gap before 3G networks come on stream offering rich multimedia experiences on mobile devices. The question is: if GPRS is not a key mobile technology, what is the alternative? On the LAN The answer suggested by telecoms research firm Analysys in its latest report could be even more discomforting for hapless network operators. "Public Wireless LAN Access: A Threat to Mobile Operators?" warns WLANs are rapidly spreading as an alternative to the use of cellular networks for data applications. The dominant standard, despite a challenge from Bluetooth, is the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11b, also known as WiFi, offering speeds in excess of 10 megabits per second over radio spectrum (2.4GHz and 5GHz) that can be used without licences. 3G speeds should reach just 1 megabit/sec. "The 802.11 standard may realise the promise of mobile broadband connections that 3G will be slow to fulfil," the report says. Hotspot access When you consider that many people only look to access data services, when they come off a train, or a motorway or pop into a coffee shop, the need for a roaming high-speed mobile capability is less apparent. Wireless LANs are being set up in airports, hotels, shopping malls and Starbucks [US:SBUX], wherever there are "hotspots" of users. But Analysys sees the independent WLAN operators facing an unequal contest if mobile operators try to muscle in on the action, with consumers preferring providers that can supply both static and on-the-move wireless access. Son of Napster There is another Napster-style nightmare scenario for the Vodafones [US:VOD] of this world though - parasitic P2P (peer-to-peer) networks. These would consist of individuals setting up their own WLANs to share their capacity with the public and linking up as chains of users in the ad hoc construction of wireless networks. Overall, Analysys sees WLANs as more opportunity than threat to mobile operators, offering "a cheap and technologically feasible solution in a shorter period" compared to the delayed 3G and the limited spectrum available to 2.5G. Cheer up then, Mr Gent. You just have to chance your arm on yet another technology, find a whole set of new locations for the transmitters and sit back and hope that some combination of 2.5G, 3G and wireless LANs will make this multimedia mobile adventure all seem worthwhile. ftmarketwatch.com{9F6C250C-721E-454B-B393-0371E61D107C}