To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (46129 ) 9/3/2001 5:26:55 PM From: techreports Respond to I'm just saying that until we actually see large numbers shipping, we need to be careful not to assume that it is mandatory that it succeed in volume just because it is Intel and just because it is 64 bit. It's simply a fact that the IA-64 Intel chip for sale now runs most jobs significantly slower than does the fastest Pentium chip. Everybody assumes that Intel "of course" will make a faster 64 bit CPU, i.e. McKinley, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating. If you were buying INTC today you'd have to say what's the probability that the 64bit chip will be a cost effective success? Don't you find it distasteful to be forced to estimate such a probability rather than wait to see? The risk of IA64 adoption is lower IF you conclude that Intel has Gorilla power over it's value chain. Without opening up this debate, there is at least a plausible case that Intel is a Gorilla. Well one has a choice as to which kind of risk that one wants to take. You can take a trade on high information risk and get a low price or you can take price risk and buy when all the good news is out (low information risk). I mean do you really think that the market is going to be so kind as hold the price down for you until all the positive information is out and there is "no risk" to enter and then suddenly raise it up to a "fair" valuation for you? The other option of waiting for all the good news and facts (market top) is to me far more distasteful and risky. The idea of buying something that everyone finally agrees is now a gorilla is to me the most risky of all scenarios that I can think of. I know it feels good and safe to run with the crowd, but one has to remember that the cattle do usually get slaughtered and I am sure there are those around here that know what I mean. I do think that a bear market is the absolute best time to apply the tenets discussed around this thread though. That is why I have been reading the information on here lately. The time to buy is when it does not feel so good combined with the positive signals of your own DD.
