To: RR who wrote (40910 ) 9/4/2001 5:28:20 PM From: stockman_scott Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 65232 General Commentary from Briefing.com... Updated: 05-Sep-01 Though Briefing.com wasn't a fan of the Hewlett-Packard/Compaq deal, we did expect the mega-merger to breath some life into the beaten down sector, if for no other reason than investors would seek out other potential takeover candidates... Unfortunately, this didn't come to pass... One reason was the small premium given CPQ shares... Another was the fact that both HWP and CPQ trended lower for much of the day, removing the incentive for investors to go bargain hunting... Performance of two PC titans also likely to make other CEOs balk at idea of seeking out a fellow wounded partner, as street's new math has one plus one equaling less than two. Almost more disturbing than the lackluster response to the questionable HWP/CPQ deal, was the failure to build on the encouraging NAPM report... Shows just how negative psychology has become that investors are more worried by analyst downgrades to chip, software and telecom equipment names, than they are excited by the first good piece of news from the manufacturing sector in months. Guess investor reaction shouldn't have been that surprising, as many traders have been burned by betting too soon on an economic recovery... And one piece of data, no matter how encouraging, can't be seen as a trend... Nevertheless, when you add the NAPM report to the past few LEI numbers, the growth in money supply, accommodating fiscal/monetary policies, declining inventories, low rates and no threat from inflation, a more compelling argument can be made that the economy is on the verge of turning around. Market reaction yesterday simply supports what we've been saying on the pages over the past several weeks... Confidence in tech is so shot that investors will need to see consistent and compelling evidence that the economy/earnings are (not "could be") on the mend before committing new resources to the sector... We could look back in a few weeks/months to yesterday's session and say that was the turning point, especially if we see more deals and more good economic news... But for now, traders seem more than happy to play the waiting game. Robert Walberg