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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (51429)	9/4/2001 1:43:27 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

HI Mike, I like Hays for his awareness of the bond markets and the money supply.His arms analysis and new highs /lows really shows the NAZ to be a laggard.Mostly due to it's excessive gains in 2000. That kind of distribution makes for unreasonable undervaluations as well. Each thread seems to have their doomsayer that predicts a stock to go to zero.If you waited to steal everything at the ridiculous bottom - you'd be expecting perfection.I'm not naive enough to expect that-(although it would be nice to lucky).gggg I think these sectors rotate.That's what makes tops and bottom seem to last so long.As each sector rotates most others go sideways. That being said most major bottoms are put in as all sectors retest in unison. This historically requires a collapse within the financial markets somewhere - it threatens the liquidity of the system - or at least a segment i.e currency or silver markets. This letting the air out of the bubble has been the most engineered slow down in our history.The pumping of liquidity (Money Supply as Hays shows is the antidote to the sickness).Notice how big the money supply was pumped in Oct of 1998 (Asian Contagion).Since it is engineered to occur I believe the turn around is also engineered - to prevent a chaotic market collapse. We could well see a market bottom that doesn't require a volume reversal shakeout.Since it is engineered - that could be what will happen.That would be Greenie being perfect.Keep the consumer and his home ok but slow down where the excesses were in the first place. The final outcome will only be confirmed with hindsight.In between I'm open to it's different this time because it was so engineered. I think this month will prove the consumer is back with a vengeance(spending their rebatesand more) and the NAPM confirming on a national basis what has happened in the Chicago region(more aligned with manufacturing sector).The last to recover will be Tech - but they may well be the first to be anticipated and therefore not far down the road to recovery. With that expectation, my acquisitions are accomplished and if it gets bloody, I'll use some sparing margin. If it doesn't recover as I expect, I'll be patient with market leaders, that haver no debt, and dynamic products that yield great margins in a normal market. I can sleep on that. Sox is up and Oracle is leading. Go Baby Go !!!! Bob